KBOI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST96%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

97%

97%

89%

Consensus

96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 94.2¢Risks 47.12u

HRESNO 5.8¢Risks 2.88u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +2.88u · HRES −2.88u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:38+00:00	85.7%	95.1%	78.2%	98.2%	25.2%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	85.7%	95.1%	78.2%	98.2%	25.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	85.7%	95.1%	84.7%	98.2%	25.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	85.7%	95.1%	84.7%	98.2%	25.2%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	85.7%	95.1%	84.7%	98.2%	25.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	85.7%	95.1%	84.7%	98.2%	25.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	89.4%	95.1%	84.7%	90.3%	25.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:34+00:00	89.4%	95.1%	84.7%	90.3%	25.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	89.4%	95.1%	84.7%	90.3%	25.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	89.4%	95.1%	84.7%	90.3%	25.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	89.4%	95.1%	82.2%	90.3%	25.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:17+00:00	89.4%	95.1%	82.2%	90.3%	25.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	89.4%	95.1%	82.2%	90.3%	25.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	83.8%	95.1%	82.2%	90.3%	25.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	83.8%	95.1%	82.2%	90.3%	25.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	83.8%	95.1%	82.2%	90.3%	25.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	83.8%	95.1%	82.2%	90.3%	25.7%
2026-10-16T04:24:57+00:00	83.8%	95.1%	82.2%	90.3%	25.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	83.8%	95.1%	89.3%	90.3%	25.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	83.8%	95.1%	89.3%	90.3%	25.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	83.8%	95.1%	89.3%	90.3%	25.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	91.2%	95.1%	89.3%	90.3%	77.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	91.2%	95.1%	89.3%	90.3%	77.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	91.2%	95.1%	89.3%	90.3%	77.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	91.2%	95.1%	89.3%	90.3%	77.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	91.2%	95.1%	89.3%	90.3%	77.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00	91.2%	99.5%	88.7%	90.3%	77.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	91.2%	99.5%	88.7%	90.3%	77.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	91.2%	99.5%	88.7%	90.3%	77.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:54+00:00	94.9%	99.5%	88.7%	83.6%	77.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	94.9%	99.5%	88.7%	83.6%	77.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:45+00:00	94.9%	99.6%	88.7%	83.6%	77.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:58+00:00	94.9%	99.6%	88.7%	83.6%	77.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	94.9%	99.6%	88.7%	83.6%	77.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	94.9%	99.6%	94.9%	83.6%	77.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	94.9%	99.6%	94.9%	83.6%	77.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	94.9%	99.6%	94.9%	83.6%	77.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00	96.8%	99.6%	94.9%	83.6%	96.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	96.8%	99.6%	94.9%	83.6%	96.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	96.8%	99.6%	94.9%	83.6%	96.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	96.8%	99.6%	94.9%	83.6%	96.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	96.8%	99.6%	94.9%	88.9%	96.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	96.8%	99.6%	98.5%	88.9%	96.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	96.8%	99.6%	98.5%	88.9%	96.8%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	96.8%	99.6%	98.5%	88.9%	96.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	96.7%	99.6%	98.5%	88.9%	96.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	96.7%	99.6%	98.5%	88.9%	96.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	96.7%	99.6%	98.5%	88.9%	96.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	96.7%	99.6%	98.5%	88.9%	96.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	76.2°F	4.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	98%	71.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	97%	72.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	97%	71.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	89%	69.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	64.0°F	7.9°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261020-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗