KBOI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST96%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

97%

97%

89%

Consensus

96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 94.2¢Risks 47.12u

HRESNO 5.8¢Risks 2.88u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +2.88u · HRES −2.88u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	61.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	19.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	13.9%	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	28.4%	—	—	62.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	0.4%	9.3%	—	—	36.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	81.1%	36.9%	7.7%	—	32.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	20.4%	93.8%	47.8%	—	62.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	78.9%	12.9%	56.1%	1.1%	—	89.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	9.0%	63.3%	96.2%	—	88.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	92.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	67.8%	8.3%	94.4%	30.0%	—	85.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	0.1%	88.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	69.3%	67.0%	94.6%	82.8%	—	86.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	79.1%	54.5%	96.8%	—	—	92.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	85.6%	95.4%	89.8%	82.8%	—	83.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	92.6%	94.1%	—	—	94.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	99.0%	97.5%	93.5%	97.3%	—	98.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	99.2%	94.3%	87.6%	—	—	99.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	98.8%	95.8%	97.0%	97.7%	0.0%	99.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	99.5%	98.1%	99.1%	—	—	99.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	99.4%	99.6%	98.9%	—	99.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.1%	99.6%	0.1%	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.7%	99.7%	99.0%	0.0%	100.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.0%	99.9%	99.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.7%	99.9%	99.7%	98.2%	100.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	99.8%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	99.9%	99.3%	100.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.6%	100.0%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	99.9%	99.9%	99.8%	100.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	100.0%	99.9%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	76.2°F	4.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	98%	71.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	97%	72.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	97%	71.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	89%	69.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	64.0°F	7.9°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261020-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗