WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KBOI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST91%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
96%
HRES
94%
EPS
94%
WN2
93%
ICON
70%
Consensus
91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 83.1¢Risks 83.15u
VS
ICONNO 16.9¢Risks 16.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +16.85u · ICON −16.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 92.9% · 2026-10-18T04:14:37+00:00AIFS Single: 92.9% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00AIFS Single: 92.9% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00AIFS Single: 92.9% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00AIFS Single: 92.9% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00AIFS Single: 96.0% · 2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:00AIFS Single: 96.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00AIFS Single: 96.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00AIFS Single: 96.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00AIFS Single: 96.0% · 2026-10-18T11:02:59+00:00AIFS Single: 96.0% · 2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00AIFS Single: 96.0% · 2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00AIFS Single: 96.0% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00AIFS Single: 96.0% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-10-18T04:14:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.4% · 2026-10-18T11:02:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.4% · 2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.4% · 2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.4% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.8% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-10-18T04:14:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T11:02:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00IFS HRES: 83.8% · 2026-10-18T04:14:37+00:00IFS HRES: 83.8% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00IFS HRES: 83.8% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00IFS HRES: 83.8% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00IFS HRES: 83.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00IFS HRES: 94.4% · 2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:00IFS HRES: 94.4% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS HRES: 94.4% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS HRES: 94.4% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00IFS HRES: 94.4% · 2026-10-18T11:02:59+00:00IFS HRES: 94.4% · 2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00IFS HRES: 94.4% · 2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00IFS HRES: 94.4% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS HRES: 94.4% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00ICON: 54.0% · 2026-10-18T04:14:37+00:00ICON: 54.0% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00ICON: 54.0% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00ICON: 54.0% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00ICON: 54.0% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00ICON: 70.4% · 2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:00ICON: 70.4% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00ICON: 70.4% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00ICON: 70.4% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00ICON: 70.4% · 2026-10-18T11:02:59+00:00ICON: 70.4% · 2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00ICON: 70.4% · 2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00ICON: 70.4% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00ICON: 70.3% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:0010-18 04:1410-18 09:3210-18 14:04
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T04:14:37+00:0092.9%92.5%85.0%83.8%54.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:0092.9%92.5%92.7%83.8%54.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:0092.9%92.5%92.7%83.8%54.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:0092.9%92.5%92.7%83.8%54.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:0092.9%92.5%92.7%83.8%54.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:0096.0%92.5%92.7%94.4%70.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:0096.0%92.5%92.7%94.4%70.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:0096.0%92.5%92.7%94.4%70.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:0096.0%92.5%92.7%94.4%70.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:59+00:0096.0%94.4%92.7%94.4%70.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:0096.0%94.4%92.7%94.4%70.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:0096.0%94.4%92.7%94.4%70.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:0096.0%94.4%92.7%94.4%70.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:0096.0%93.8%92.7%94.4%70.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single96%77.6°F4.1°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
IFS HRES94%77.0°F4.1°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble94%76.9°F4.2°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 293%75.0°F3.1°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend78%73.0°F3.2°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
ICON70%72.4°F3.6°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
NWS forecast56%71.0°F3.4°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗