KBOI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST91%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

94%

94%

93%

70%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 83.1¢Risks 83.15u

ICONNO 16.9¢Risks 16.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +16.85u · ICON −16.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.4%	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	4.3%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.6%	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	36.2%	5.8%	0.4%	—	4.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.7%	60.1%	9.0%	—	16.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	0.7%	11.8%	0.0%	—	46.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.3%	14.5%	64.8%	—	41.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	0.2%	55.0%	2.3%	—	33.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.9%	0.0%	39.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	13.6%	52.6%	27.7%	—	33.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	22.2%	7.1%	60.7%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	52.8%	36.4%	25.1%	—	25.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	41.5%	46.2%	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	73.7%	59.6%	42.3%	58.7%	—	67.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	75.1%	43.0%	27.4%	—	—	78.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	46.9%	53.1%	57.2%	0.0%	82.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	76.3%	58.4%	69.3%	—	—	85.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	72.7%	77.8%	64.9%	—	86.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	83.9%	65.4%	75.1%	0.0%	—	90.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	74.9%	74.9%	61.5%	0.0%	89.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	89.8%	58.4%	80.1%	81.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	91.0%	71.3%	82.6%	71.3%	46.3%	97.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	80.9%	73.1%	76.2%	—	98.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	91.1%	73.9%	84.3%	72.7%	54.0%	97.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	58.3%	86.8%	77.9%	—	98.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	91.6%	70.7%	75.5%	72.0%	64.2%	99.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	76.4%	66.2%	—	99.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	96%	77.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	94%	77.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	94%	76.9°F	4.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	93%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	78%	73.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	70%	72.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗