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KBOI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
73%
WN2
68%
EPS
58%
HRES
22%
ICON
21%
Consensus
52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 46.7¢Risks 46.70u
VS
ICONNO 53.3¢Risks 53.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.30u · ICON −53.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 72.7% · 2026-10-14T10:34:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.3% · 2026-10-14T10:34:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.5% · 2026-10-14T10:34:32+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-14T10:34:32+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-10-14T10:34:32+00:0010-14 10:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

One recorded snapshot. Additional runs will extend this chart.

2026-10-14T10:34:32+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T10:34:32+00:0072.7%58.3%68.5%22.4%20.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single73%61.9°F5.6°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 268%61.1°F5.4°F2026-10-13 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble58%61.1°F12.5°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
National Blend54%59.0°F5.6°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
IFS HRES22%53.7°F6.3°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
ICON21%50.4°F9.9°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261021-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 59°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗