KBOI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

68%

58%

22%

21%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.7¢Risks 46.70u

ICONNO 53.3¢Risks 53.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.30u · ICON −53.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	89.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	92.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	—	—	—	64.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	1.0%	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	38.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	72.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	—	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	4.8%	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	87.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	46.6%	1.6%	96.8%	—	—	85.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	97.3%	80.6%	73.1%	1.3%	—	95.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	86.4%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	78.5%	22.6%	16.1%	97.9%	—	96.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	68.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	94.2%	31.6%	71.1%	86.7%	—	94.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	89.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	97.4%	98.8%	99.0%	93.8%	—	98.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	99.1%	98.8%	97.5%	—	98.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	87.2%	97.7%	—	—	22.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.5%	95.7%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	98.9%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	95.2%	98.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.5%	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	7.5%	—	100.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	73%	61.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	68%	61.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	58%	61.1°F	12.5°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	59.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	53.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	21%	50.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261021-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 59°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗