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KBOI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
91%
AIFS
91%
WN2
67%
EPS
63%
ICON
29%
Consensus
71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 60.3¢Risks 60.30u
VS
ICONNO 39.7¢Risks 39.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +39.70u · ICON −39.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 89.0% · 2026-10-15T15:34:39+00:00AIFS Single: 89.0% · 2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00AIFS Single: 89.0% · 2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00AIFS Single: 89.0% · 2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00AIFS Single: 89.0% · 2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00AIFS Single: 89.0% · 2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00AIFS Single: 90.3% · 2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00AIFS Single: 90.3% · 2026-10-15T20:51:34+00:00AIFS Single: 90.3% · 2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00AIFS Single: 90.3% · 2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00AIFS Single: 90.3% · 2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00AIFS Single: 90.3% · 2026-10-15T23:52:17+00:00AIFS Single: 90.3% · 2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00AIFS Single: 90.6% · 2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00AIFS Single: 90.6% · 2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00AIFS Single: 90.6% · 2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00AIFS Single: 90.6% · 2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.9% · 2026-10-15T15:34:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.9% · 2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.9% · 2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.9% · 2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.9% · 2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.9% · 2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.9% · 2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.9% · 2026-10-15T20:51:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.9% · 2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.9% · 2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.9% · 2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.9% · 2026-10-15T23:52:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.9% · 2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.9% · 2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.9% · 2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.9% · 2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.9% · 2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-15T15:34:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-15T20:51:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-15T23:52:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00IFS HRES: 82.2% · 2026-10-15T15:34:39+00:00IFS HRES: 82.2% · 2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00IFS HRES: 82.2% · 2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00IFS HRES: 82.2% · 2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00IFS HRES: 82.2% · 2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00IFS HRES: 82.2% · 2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00IFS HRES: 91.4% · 2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00IFS HRES: 91.4% · 2026-10-15T20:51:34+00:00IFS HRES: 91.4% · 2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00IFS HRES: 91.4% · 2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00IFS HRES: 91.4% · 2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00IFS HRES: 91.4% · 2026-10-15T23:52:17+00:00IFS HRES: 91.4% · 2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00IFS HRES: 91.4% · 2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00IFS HRES: 91.4% · 2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00IFS HRES: 91.4% · 2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00IFS HRES: 91.4% · 2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00ICON: 21.9% · 2026-10-15T15:34:39+00:00ICON: 21.9% · 2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00ICON: 21.9% · 2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00ICON: 21.9% · 2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00ICON: 21.9% · 2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00ICON: 21.9% · 2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00ICON: 29.1% · 2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00ICON: 29.1% · 2026-10-15T20:51:34+00:00ICON: 29.1% · 2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00ICON: 29.1% · 2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00ICON: 29.1% · 2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00ICON: 29.2% · 2026-10-15T23:52:17+00:00ICON: 29.2% · 2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00ICON: 29.2% · 2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00ICON: 29.2% · 2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00ICON: 29.2% · 2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00ICON: 29.2% · 2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:0010-15 15:3410-15 21:3610-16 03:38
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T15:34:39+00:0089.0%62.9%60.1%82.2%21.9%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:0089.0%62.9%60.1%82.2%21.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:0089.0%62.9%76.0%82.2%21.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:0089.0%62.9%76.0%82.2%21.9%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:0089.0%62.9%76.0%82.2%21.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:0089.0%62.9%76.0%82.2%21.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:0090.3%62.9%76.0%91.4%29.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:34+00:0090.3%62.9%76.0%91.4%29.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:0090.3%62.9%76.0%91.4%29.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:0090.3%62.9%76.0%91.4%29.1%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:0090.3%62.9%67.4%91.4%29.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:17+00:0090.3%62.9%67.4%91.4%29.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:0090.3%62.9%67.4%91.4%29.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:0090.6%62.9%67.4%91.4%29.2%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:0090.6%62.9%67.4%91.4%29.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:0090.6%62.9%67.4%91.4%29.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:0090.6%62.9%67.4%91.4%29.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES91%72.5°F6.6°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
AIFS Single91%70.6°F5.4°F2026-10-15 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 267%65.6°F4.7°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble63%67.8°F13.0°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%64.0°F5.9°F2026-10-15 15:00Pending
National Blend52%64.0°F8.9°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending
ICON29%59.6°F7.1°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261021-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗