KBOI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

91%

67%

63%

29%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 60.3¢Risks 60.30u

ICONNO 39.7¢Risks 39.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +39.70u · ICON −39.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	32.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	15.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	16.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	0.7%	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	0.1%	84.1%	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	49.3%	39.6%	0.1%	—	79.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	44.9%	4.8%	2.8%	86.9%	—	82.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	7.6%	34.4%	56.1%	—	72.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	82.6%	89.6%	90.7%	70.5%	—	87.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	93.0%	—	93.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	96.1%	90.3%	88.4%	82.2%	—	87.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	96.7%	52.6%	82.2%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	99.5%	93.0%	73.1%	98.0%	—	99.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	99.1%	98.7%	87.9%	—	—	99.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	99.4%	69.5%	81.6%	—	99.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.9%	99.5%	—	—	99.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.9%	99.9%	95.4%	—	99.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.8%	99.9%	—	—	99.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	99.7%	99.9%	90.1%	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	99.8%	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.7%	100.0%	98.3%	—	100.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	98.2%	100.0%	0.2%	—	100.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	96.5%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.5%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.6%	99.8%	100.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	100.0%	99.8%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	91%	72.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	70.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	67%	65.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	63%	67.8°F	13.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	64.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	29%	59.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261021-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗