KBOI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

89%

83%

83%

61%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 79.3¢Risks 79.30u

HRESNO 20.7¢Risks 20.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +20.70u · HRES −20.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	89.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	—	—	—	62.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	55.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	—	—	—	64.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	89.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	98.7%	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	94.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	75.4%	—	94.5%	—	—	92.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	26.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	92.8%	1.6%	56.7%	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	54.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	87.0%	85.9%	33.6%	10.9%	—	85.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	89.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	58.0%	95.2%	95.1%	—	92.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	85.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	71.1%	98.1%	55.3%	62.0%	—	91.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	85.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	99.3%	95.7%	87.3%	99.4%	—	99.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	98.6%	—	—	99.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	93.7%	95.3%	63.9%	—	99.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	95.9%	50.9%	94.6%	—	—	99.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	97.1%	95.0%	99.1%	—	96.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	99.6%	95.0%	—	—	98.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	89.4%	84.5%	100.0%	70.3%	—	97.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	89.1%	97.4%	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	95.4%	86.4%	100.0%	95.6%	—	99.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	91.2%	82.3%	100.0%	—	—	55.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	91.8%	98.6%	100.0%	99.9%	—	99.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	97.5%	98.6%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	94.4%	98.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	100.0%	4.2%	—	99.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	98%	74.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	66.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	83%	68.3°F	9.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	83%	63.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	61.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	61.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	60.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261022-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 60°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗