KBOI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

95%

84%

82%

78%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 87.7¢Risks 87.70u

WN2NO 12.3¢Risks 12.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +12.30u · WN2 −12.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:26+00:00	69.1%	70.1%	53.4%	36.9%	93.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	69.1%	70.1%	68.9%	36.9%	93.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	69.1%	70.1%	68.9%	36.9%	93.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	69.1%	70.1%	68.9%	36.9%	93.0%
2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:00	99.3%	70.1%	68.9%	87.0%	88.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00	99.3%	70.1%	68.9%	87.0%	88.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	99.3%	70.1%	68.9%	87.0%	88.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	99.3%	70.1%	68.9%	87.0%	88.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	99.3%	70.1%	68.9%	87.0%	88.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	99.3%	97.6%	95.1%	87.0%	88.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	99.3%	97.6%	95.1%	87.0%	88.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	99.3%	97.6%	95.1%	87.0%	88.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	72.7%	97.6%	95.1%	87.0%	88.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	72.8%	97.6%	95.1%	86.9%	88.4%
2026-10-17T15:25:15+00:00	72.8%	97.9%	95.1%	86.9%	88.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	72.8%	97.9%	95.1%	86.9%	88.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	72.8%	97.9%	78.2%	86.9%	88.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	72.8%	97.9%	78.2%	86.9%	88.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	72.8%	97.9%	78.2%	86.9%	88.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	72.8%	97.9%	78.2%	86.9%	88.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	92.4%	97.9%	78.2%	82.0%	83.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	92.4%	97.9%	78.2%	82.0%	83.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	92.4%	97.9%	78.2%	82.0%	83.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	92.4%	97.9%	78.2%	82.0%	83.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	92.4%	97.9%	77.5%	82.0%	83.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	92.4%	97.9%	77.5%	82.0%	83.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	92.4%	97.9%	77.5%	82.0%	83.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	92.4%	97.9%	77.5%	82.0%	83.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	95.1%	97.9%	77.5%	82.0%	83.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	95.1%	97.9%	77.5%	82.0%	83.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	95.1%	97.9%	77.5%	82.0%	83.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	74.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	71.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	84%	69.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	82%	68.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	66.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	63.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261022-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗