KBOI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

95%

84%

82%

78%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 87.7¢Risks 87.70u

WN2NO 12.3¢Risks 12.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +12.30u · WN2 −12.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	73.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	94.4%	—	—	55.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	82.8%	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	9.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	0.2%	30.6%	—	—	63.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	28.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	66.4%	64.4%	13.0%	2.6%	—	63.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	71.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	79.5%	29.7%	82.5%	82.0%	—	76.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	62.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	90.3%	26.4%	32.3%	—	72.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	82.1%	63.3%	95.5%	—	98.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	91.5%	—	—	94.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	75.5%	79.9%	31.5%	—	95.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	81.0%	20.1%	77.4%	—	—	95.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	78.6%	84.4%	77.9%	93.2%	—	82.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	95.7%	77.1%	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	53.7%	99.9%	34.7%	—	86.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	61.2%	84.1%	93.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	54.9%	99.3%	76.8%	—	92.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	47.0%	100.0%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	87.7%	100.0%	97.8%	—	96.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	81.7%	87.4%	100.0%	—	—	99.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	88.1%	100.0%	99.3%	99.9%	98.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	100.0%	0.2%	—	96.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	74.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	71.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	84%	69.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	82%	68.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	66.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	63.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261022-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗