KBOI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

80%

79%

74%

62%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 79.2¢Risks 79.25u

ICONNO 20.8¢Risks 20.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +20.75u · ICON −20.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:31:25+00:00	62.0%	88.0%	60.6%	54.0%	34.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	62.0%	88.0%	63.6%	54.0%	34.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:15+00:00	62.0%	88.0%	63.6%	54.0%	34.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	62.0%	88.0%	63.6%	54.0%	34.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:42+00:00	75.9%	88.0%	63.6%	74.9%	24.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	75.9%	88.0%	63.6%	74.9%	24.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	75.9%	88.0%	63.6%	74.9%	24.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	75.9%	88.0%	63.6%	74.9%	24.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:24+00:00	75.9%	88.0%	63.6%	74.9%	24.1%
2026-10-19T11:21:14+00:00	75.9%	96.4%	82.9%	74.9%	24.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	75.9%	96.4%	82.9%	74.9%	24.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	75.9%	96.4%	82.9%	74.9%	24.1%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00	64.6%	96.4%	82.9%	74.9%	24.1%
2026-10-19T14:28:04+00:00	64.6%	96.4%	83.0%	74.9%	24.1%
2026-10-19T15:13:51+00:00	64.6%	96.7%	83.0%	74.9%	24.1%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	64.6%	96.7%	83.0%	74.9%	24.1%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	64.6%	96.7%	83.0%	74.9%	24.1%
2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00	64.6%	96.7%	75.3%	74.9%	24.1%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	64.6%	96.7%	75.3%	74.9%	24.1%
2026-10-19T19:00:15+00:00	64.6%	96.7%	75.3%	74.9%	24.1%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00	64.6%	96.7%	75.3%	79.0%	61.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	64.6%	96.7%	75.3%	79.0%	61.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	64.6%	96.7%	75.3%	79.0%	61.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	64.6%	96.7%	75.3%	79.0%	61.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	64.6%	96.7%	75.3%	79.0%	61.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	64.6%	96.7%	74.4%	79.0%	61.8%
2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00	64.6%	96.7%	74.4%	79.0%	61.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	64.6%	96.7%	74.4%	79.0%	61.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	80.1%	96.7%	74.4%	79.0%	61.8%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	80.1%	96.7%	74.4%	79.0%	61.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	80.1%	96.7%	74.4%	79.0%	61.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	75.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	71.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	71.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	69.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	62%	68.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	67.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗