KBOI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

80%

79%

74%

62%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 79.2¢Risks 79.25u

ICONNO 20.8¢Risks 20.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +20.75u · ICON −20.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	22.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	83.2%	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	61.6%	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	0.0%	11.8%	—	—	36.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	36.9%	3.3%	0.4%	—	35.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	53.6%	10.3%	58.0%	57.3%	—	50.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	70.4%	8.1%	11.0%	—	43.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	54.8%	32.3%	81.6%	—	89.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	71.0%	—	—	78.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	44.2%	50.0%	9.3%	—	79.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	4.5%	45.7%	—	—	78.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	55.2%	45.6%	73.1%	—	52.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	37.6%	79.1%	43.7%	—	—	65.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	20.3%	98.0%	9.4%	—	56.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	51.9%	69.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	19.7%	92.8%	40.4%	—	68.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	14.0%	99.7%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	55.1%	99.0%	83.7%	—	78.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	53.2%	99.3%	—	—	94.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	27.3%	53.3%	98.9%	91.0%	97.9%	86.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	99.7%	0.0%	—	74.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	75.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	71.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	71.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	69.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	62%	68.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	67.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗