KBOI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

54%

50%

46%

28%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 56.0¢Risks 56.00u

ICONNO 44.0¢Risks 44.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.00u · ICON −44.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:38+00:00	74.1%	87.2%	32.2%	52.1%	56.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	74.1%	87.2%	53.9%	52.1%	56.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	74.1%	87.2%	53.9%	52.1%	56.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	74.1%	87.2%	53.9%	52.1%	56.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	74.1%	87.2%	53.9%	52.1%	56.5%
2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:00	72.9%	87.2%	53.9%	32.3%	60.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	72.9%	87.2%	53.9%	32.3%	60.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	72.9%	87.2%	53.9%	32.3%	60.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00	72.9%	87.2%	53.9%	32.3%	60.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:59+00:00	72.9%	82.8%	44.7%	32.3%	60.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00	72.9%	82.8%	44.7%	32.3%	60.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00	72.9%	82.8%	44.7%	32.3%	60.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	72.9%	82.8%	44.7%	32.3%	60.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	65.3%	82.6%	44.7%	32.3%	60.5%
2026-10-18T14:56:04+00:00	65.3%	82.6%	44.7%	32.3%	60.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:38+00:00	65.3%	84.4%	44.7%	32.3%	60.5%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	65.3%	84.4%	44.7%	32.3%	60.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	65.3%	84.4%	50.0%	32.3%	60.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	65.3%	84.4%	50.0%	32.3%	60.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	65.3%	84.4%	50.0%	32.3%	60.5%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	55.2%	84.4%	50.0%	46.0%	27.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	55.2%	84.4%	50.0%	46.0%	27.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	55.2%	84.4%	50.0%	46.0%	27.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	55.2%	84.4%	50.0%	46.0%	27.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	55.2%	84.4%	50.0%	46.0%	27.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	55.2%	84.4%	50.0%	46.0%	27.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:56+00:00	55.2%	84.4%	50.0%	46.0%	27.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	55.2%	84.4%	50.0%	46.0%	27.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	53.5%	84.4%	50.0%	46.0%	27.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	53.5%	84.4%	50.0%	46.0%	27.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	53.5%	84.4%	50.0%	46.0%	27.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	53.5%	84.4%	50.0%	46.0%	27.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	84%	74.8°F	6.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	68.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	69.0°F	7.9°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	68.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	68.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	28%	65.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261022-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 69°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗