KBOI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

54%

50%

46%

28%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 56.0¢Risks 56.00u

ICONNO 44.0¢Risks 44.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.00u · ICON −44.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	12.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	—	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	78.9%	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	55.2%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	0.0%	8.8%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	30.5%	2.2%	0.2%	—	29.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	46.4%	7.4%	50.7%	50.0%	—	42.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	26.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	63.5%	5.6%	7.8%	—	35.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	46.8%	25.5%	75.8%	—	85.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	63.6%	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.8%	36.1%	41.7%	6.3%	—	72.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	42.4%	2.8%	37.4%	—	—	71.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	46.5%	37.1%	65.4%	—	43.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	72.1%	35.1%	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	14.4%	96.6%	6.1%	—	47.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	42.5%	61.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	13.6%	88.9%	31.3%	—	59.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	18.3%	9.2%	99.3%	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	44.9%	98.0%	76.5%	—	69.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	42.6%	98.5%	—	—	91.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	42.4%	97.7%	85.7%	96.0%	79.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	18.3%	—	99.4%	0.0%	—	64.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	84%	74.8°F	6.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	68.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	69.0°F	7.9°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	68.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	68.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	28%	65.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261022-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 69°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗