KBOI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

59%

37%

22%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 40.3¢Risks 40.30u

ICONNO 59.7¢Risks 59.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +59.70u · ICON −59.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	4.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	56.9%	—	—	10.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	29.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	30.1%	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	0.0%	2.1%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	11.2%	0.3%	0.0%	—	10.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	1.5%	23.7%	23.2%	—	17.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	33.7%	0.9%	1.5%	—	12.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	7.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	18.9%	7.2%	46.0%	—	60.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	31.9%	—	—	40.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	11.6%	14.8%	0.9%	—	40.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	0.3%	11.9%	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	16.7%	11.3%	31.4%	—	15.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	37.6%	10.0%	—	—	23.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	2.3%	81.6%	0.7%	—	16.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	12.7%	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	1.9%	59.6%	7.2%	—	23.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	1.0%	92.7%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	12.3%	84.9%	37.8%	—	30.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	10.6%	86.8%	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	9.9%	81.7%	48.9%	74.5%	39.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	91.3%	0.0%	—	22.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	72%	75.1°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	59%	73.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	37%	71.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	36%	71.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	33%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	69.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	8%	67.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261022-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Boise runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗