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KBOI / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
95%
EPS
59%
AIFS
21%
WN2
18%
ICON
2%
Consensus
37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 48.5¢Risks 48.50u
VS
ICONNO 51.5¢Risks 51.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +51.50u · ICON −51.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 21.2% · 2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:00AIFS Single: 21.2% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00AIFS Single: 21.2% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00AIFS Single: 21.2% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.0% · 2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.6% · 2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.6% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.6% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.6% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00IFS HRES: 95.4% · 2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:00IFS HRES: 95.4% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS HRES: 95.4% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS HRES: 95.4% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:0010-18 08:0110-18 09:3210-18 10:17
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:0021.2%59.0%17.6%95.4%1.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:0021.2%59.0%17.6%95.4%1.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:0021.2%59.0%17.6%95.4%1.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:0021.2%59.0%17.6%95.4%1.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES95%70.4°F6.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble59%61.6°F9.2°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend52%60.0°F8.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single21%54.9°F5.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 218%54.4°F5.5°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
ICON2%38.2°F9.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261025-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗