KBOI / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

59%

21%

18%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 48.5¢Risks 48.50u

ICONNO 51.5¢Risks 51.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +51.50u · ICON −51.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	—	—	—	65.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	30.8%	—	—	57.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	52.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	64.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	26.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	97.1%	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	84.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	0.0%	87.5%	—	—	74.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	89.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	24.6%	84.2%	52.1%	—	77.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	90.0%	82.5%	83.5%	65.7%	—	84.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	84.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	94.0%	80.0%	23.9%	—	81.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	84.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	80.0%	69.8%	32.3%	28.8%	85.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	63.6%	—	—	84.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	95%	70.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	61.6°F	9.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	60.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	21%	54.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	54.4°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	2%	38.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261025-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗