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KBOI / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
95%
EPS
66%
WN2
30%
AIFS
30%
ICON
17%
Consensus
51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 56.1¢Risks 56.10u
VS
ICONNO 43.9¢Risks 43.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +43.90u · ICON −43.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 29.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:42+00:00AIFS Single: 29.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00AIFS Single: 29.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 29.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00AIFS Single: 29.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:24+00:00IFS HRES: 95.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:42+00:00IFS HRES: 95.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00IFS HRES: 95.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 95.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS HRES: 95.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:24+00:00ICON: 17.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:42+00:00ICON: 17.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00ICON: 17.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 17.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00ICON: 17.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:24+00:0010-19 07:3310-19 09:0410-19 10:35
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:35:24+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:33:42+00:0029.5%66.1%30.5%95.1%17.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:0029.5%66.1%30.5%95.1%17.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:0029.5%66.1%30.5%95.1%17.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:0029.5%66.1%30.5%95.1%17.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:24+00:0029.5%66.1%30.5%95.1%17.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES95%69.2°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble66%63.6°F12.3°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend52%59.0°F11.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 230%55.7°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
AIFS Single30%55.4°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON17%49.0°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261026-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 59°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗