KBOI / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

66%

30%

30%

17%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 56.1¢Risks 56.10u

ICONNO 43.9¢Risks 43.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +43.90u · ICON −43.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	51.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	75.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	69.8%	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	79.4%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	0.2%	—	—	65.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	71.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	0.8%	75.1%	—	—	76.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	87.8%	94.2%	61.8%	1.4%	—	80.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	91.4%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	91.3%	74.6%	42.7%	10.0%	86.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	67.3%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	95%	69.2°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	63.6°F	12.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	59.0°F	11.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	55.7°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	30%	55.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	17%	49.0°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261026-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 59°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗