KBOI / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

91%

87%

68%

60%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 77.5¢Risks 77.50u

WN2NO 22.5¢Risks 22.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +22.50u · WN2 −22.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T11:21:14+00:00	18.8%	66.9%	17.4%	91.1%	12.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	18.8%	66.9%	17.4%	91.1%	12.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	18.8%	66.9%	17.4%	91.1%	12.5%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00	95.2%	66.9%	17.4%	91.1%	12.5%
2026-10-19T14:28:04+00:00	95.3%	66.9%	17.3%	91.2%	12.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:52+00:00	95.3%	67.7%	17.3%	91.2%	12.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	95.3%	67.7%	17.3%	91.2%	12.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	95.3%	67.7%	17.3%	91.2%	12.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00	95.3%	67.7%	52.3%	91.2%	12.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	95.3%	67.7%	52.3%	91.2%	12.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:15+00:00	95.3%	67.7%	52.3%	91.2%	12.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00	93.3%	67.7%	52.3%	90.9%	87.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	93.3%	67.7%	52.3%	90.9%	87.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	93.3%	67.7%	52.3%	90.9%	87.4%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	93.3%	67.7%	52.3%	90.9%	87.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	93.3%	67.7%	52.3%	90.9%	87.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	93.3%	67.7%	60.1%	90.9%	87.4%
2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00	93.3%	67.7%	60.1%	90.9%	87.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	93.3%	67.7%	60.1%	90.9%	87.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	94.9%	67.7%	60.1%	90.9%	87.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	94.9%	67.7%	60.1%	90.9%	87.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	94.9%	67.7%	60.1%	90.9%	87.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	95%	69.9°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	91%	69.1°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	87%	72.0°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	68%	65.4°F	10.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	60%	61.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	61.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261026-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 61°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗