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KBOI / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
73%
EPS
69%
WN2
44%
AIFS
39%
ICON
26%
Consensus
51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 49.5¢Risks 49.45u
VS
ICONNO 50.6¢Risks 50.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +50.55u · ICON −50.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 63.6% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.3% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 49.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 71.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.9% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 87.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.4% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.4% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 80.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 44.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 85.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 84.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 86.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 82.5% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 44.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 48.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 44.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 45.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 39.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 48.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 45.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 49.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 38.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 44.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 59.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 12:0010-16 12:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.0%———2.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:001.6%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0035.4%———31.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0054.8%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0020.4%———44.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0063.6%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0024.0%———48.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0055.3%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0034.9%———44.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0049.5%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0071.2%———45.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0027.9%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0018.9%———39.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0087.2%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0015.9%———48.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:002.1%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:003.1%———35.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0016.7%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0022.4%———45.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:006.9%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.8%———49.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:001.2%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0010.6%—80.7%—28.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:004.9%—6.9%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:003.9%———38.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0030.5%—7.3%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0011.3%—44.4%—50.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0021.1%—85.9%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:005.7%—84.0%—44.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0045.4%—86.7%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0016.7%3.1%27.1%0.1%59.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0074.4%—82.5%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES73%64.4°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble69%65.0°F9.3°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend52%61.0°F9.9°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 244%59.8°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single39%58.9°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON26%54.1°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261027-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 61°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗