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KBOI / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST6%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
31%
HRES
21%
ICON
6%
AIFS
3%
WN2
3%
Consensus
6%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 17.1¢Risks 17.10u
VS
WN2NO 82.9¢Risks 82.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +82.90u · WN2 −82.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-20T10:54:12+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.4% · 2026-10-20T10:54:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.9% · 2026-10-20T10:54:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00IFS HRES: 21.4% · 2026-10-20T10:54:12+00:00IFS HRES: 21.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00IFS HRES: 21.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 21.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS HRES: 21.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00ICON: 6.2% · 2026-10-20T10:54:12+00:00ICON: 6.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00ICON: 6.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 6.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00ICON: 6.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:0010-20 10:5410-20 12:2410-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:54:12+00:003.2%31.4%2.9%21.4%6.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:003.2%31.4%2.9%21.4%6.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:003.2%31.4%2.9%21.4%6.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:003.2%31.4%2.9%21.4%6.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:003.2%31.4%2.8%21.4%6.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble31%65.0°F9.3°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES21%64.4°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend20%61.0°F9.9°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON6%54.1°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single3%58.9°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 23%59.8°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261027-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Boise runs hot-for-here: 70°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗