KBOS / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

95%

87%

76%

71%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 84.9¢Risks 84.90u

EPSNO 15.1¢Risks 15.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +15.10u · EPS −15.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T14:27:48+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-18T03:02:31+00:00	95.4%	71.9%	98.9%	75.6%	88.6%
2026-09-18T03:48:02+00:00	95.4%	71.9%	98.9%	75.6%	88.6%
2026-09-18T04:33:06+00:00	95.4%	71.9%	98.9%	75.6%	75.8%
2026-09-18T05:18:11+00:00	95.4%	71.9%	98.9%	75.6%	75.8%
2026-09-18T06:03:17+00:00	95.4%	71.9%	98.9%	75.6%	75.8%
2026-09-18T06:48:25+00:00	95.4%	71.9%	98.9%	75.6%	75.8%
2026-09-18T07:33:29+00:00	95.9%	71.9%	98.9%	68.4%	75.8%
2026-09-18T08:19:05+00:00	95.9%	71.9%	98.9%	68.4%	75.8%
2026-09-18T09:04:10+00:00	95.9%	71.9%	98.9%	68.4%	75.8%
2026-09-18T09:49:18+00:00	95.9%	71.9%	98.9%	68.4%	75.8%
2026-09-18T10:34:23+00:00	95.9%	71.9%	98.9%	68.4%	75.8%
2026-09-18T11:19:59+00:00	95.9%	70.4%	98.9%	68.4%	75.8%
2026-09-18T12:05:13+00:00	95.9%	70.4%	98.9%	68.4%	75.8%
2026-09-18T12:50:18+00:00	95.9%	70.4%	98.9%	68.4%	75.8%
2026-09-18T13:35:23+00:00	95.9%	70.4%	98.9%	68.4%	75.8%
2026-09-18T14:21:53+00:00	95.9%	70.4%	98.9%	68.4%	75.8%
2026-09-19T03:08:46+00:00	95.7%	70.4%	98.9%	73.1%	88.7%
2026-09-19T03:54:12+00:00	95.7%	70.4%	98.9%	73.1%	88.7%
2026-09-19T04:39:17+00:00	95.7%	70.4%	98.9%	73.1%	87.3%
2026-09-19T05:24:22+00:00	95.7%	70.4%	98.9%	73.1%	87.3%
2026-09-19T06:09:27+00:00	95.7%	70.4%	98.9%	73.1%	87.3%
2026-09-19T06:54:36+00:00	95.7%	70.4%	98.9%	73.1%	87.3%
2026-09-19T07:39:40+00:00	96.0%	70.4%	98.9%	76.2%	87.3%
2026-09-19T08:25:20+00:00	96.0%	70.4%	98.9%	76.2%	87.3%
2026-09-19T09:10:34+00:00	96.0%	70.4%	98.9%	76.2%	87.3%
2026-09-19T09:55:39+00:00	96.0%	70.4%	98.9%	76.2%	87.3%
2026-09-19T10:40:44+00:00	96.0%	70.4%	98.9%	76.2%	87.3%
2026-09-19T11:25:50+00:00	96.0%	70.9%	98.9%	76.2%	87.3%
2026-09-19T12:11:02+00:00	96.0%	70.9%	98.9%	76.2%	87.3%
2026-09-19T12:56:07+00:00	96.0%	70.9%	98.9%	76.2%	87.3%
2026-09-19T13:41:11+00:00	94.5%	70.9%	98.9%	76.2%	87.3%
2026-09-19T14:27:48+00:00	94.6%	70.9%	98.9%	76.2%	87.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	68.8°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	0.0001
AIFS Single	95%	66.0°F	4.7°F	2026-09-19 06:00	0.0029
National Blend	94%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-19 06:00	0.0032
ICON	87%	63.9°F	4.7°F	2026-09-19 00:00	0.0161
IFS HRES	76%	62.1°F	5.1°F	2026-09-19 00:00	0.0566
IFS Ensemble	71%	60.1°F	2.9°F	2026-09-19 00:00	0.0847
NWS forecast	55%	59.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-19 02:00	0.2070

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20260923-TMAX-GE59
Opened Sep 18 · 03:02 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 59°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗