KBOS / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 63°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 10 · 03:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

55%

38%

23%

20%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.9¢Risks 57.90u

AIFSNO 42.1¢Risks 42.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.10u · AIFS −42.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T03:31:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-09T07:50:36+00:00	97.1%	47.2%	90.9%	70.4%	31.2%
2026-10-09T08:37:11+00:00	97.1%	47.2%	90.9%	70.4%	31.2%
2026-10-09T09:22:16+00:00	97.1%	47.2%	90.9%	70.4%	31.2%
2026-10-09T10:07:23+00:00	97.1%	47.2%	90.9%	70.4%	31.2%
2026-10-09T10:52:28+00:00	97.1%	47.2%	90.9%	70.4%	31.2%
2026-10-09T11:37:34+00:00	97.1%	47.2%	90.9%	70.4%	31.2%
2026-10-09T12:23:02+00:00	97.1%	37.1%	90.9%	70.4%	31.2%
2026-10-09T13:08:24+00:00	97.1%	37.1%	90.9%	70.4%	31.2%
2026-10-09T13:53:30+00:00	71.7%	37.1%	90.9%	70.4%	31.2%
2026-10-09T14:42:06+00:00	71.7%	37.1%	90.9%	70.4%	31.3%
2026-10-09T15:27:12+00:00	71.7%	38.2%	90.9%	70.4%	31.3%
2026-10-09T16:13:12+00:00	71.7%	38.2%	90.9%	70.4%	31.3%
2026-10-09T16:58:25+00:00	71.7%	38.2%	90.9%	70.4%	31.3%
2026-10-09T17:43:31+00:00	71.7%	38.2%	95.4%	70.4%	31.3%
2026-10-09T18:28:38+00:00	71.7%	38.2%	95.4%	70.4%	31.3%
2026-10-09T19:13:43+00:00	71.7%	38.2%	95.4%	70.4%	31.3%
2026-10-09T19:58:48+00:00	31.4%	38.2%	95.4%	23.4%	54.5%
2026-10-09T20:44:01+00:00	31.4%	38.2%	95.4%	23.4%	54.5%
2026-10-09T21:29:06+00:00	31.4%	38.2%	95.4%	23.4%	54.5%
2026-10-09T22:14:35+00:00	31.4%	38.2%	95.4%	23.4%	54.5%
2026-10-09T22:59:41+00:00	31.4%	38.2%	95.4%	23.4%	54.5%
2026-10-09T23:44:47+00:00	31.4%	38.2%	95.4%	23.4%	54.5%
2026-10-10T00:29:53+00:00	31.4%	38.2%	95.4%	23.4%	54.5%
2026-10-10T01:15:12+00:00	31.4%	38.2%	95.4%	23.4%	54.5%
2026-10-10T02:00:32+00:00	20.4%	38.2%	95.4%	23.4%	54.5%
2026-10-10T02:45:56+00:00	20.4%	38.2%	95.4%	23.4%	54.5%
2026-10-10T03:31:20+00:00	20.4%	38.2%	95.4%	23.4%	54.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	70.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-09 06:00	0.0021
ICON	55%	63.6°F	9.8°F	2026-10-09 12:00	0.2070
National Blend	53%	63.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-09 06:00	0.2247
IFS Ensemble	38%	60.3°F	7.3°F	2026-10-09 00:00	0.3819
IFS HRES	23%	57.9°F	6.3°F	2026-10-09 12:00	0.5868
AIFS Single	20%	57.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-09 18:00	0.6336

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261016-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 09 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 63°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗