KBOS / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 63°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 10 · 03:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

55%

38%

23%

20%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.9¢Risks 57.90u

AIFSNO 42.1¢Risks 42.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.10u · AIFS −42.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	—	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	9.5%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	—	—	—	24.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	52.5%	—	96.5%	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	94.6%	—	78.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	96.1%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	71.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	86.8%	5.9%	42.6%	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	42.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	28.1%	42.3%	7.9%	—	33.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	42.0%	18.4%	19.4%	24.9%	—	33.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	77.2%	19.5%	4.1%	—	33.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	52.4%	0.7%	26.1%	4.1%	—	38.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	0.6%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	59.1%	64.7%	1.1%	—	65.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	7.5%	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	5.9%	61.3%	83.3%	—	29.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	22.2%	4.8%	64.1%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	2.6%	71.8%	71.0%	—	49.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	7.0%	63.0%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	53.9%	98.2%	74.5%	47.1%	—	57.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	59.9%	16.4%	76.6%	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	99.6%	72.4%	95.1%	—	76.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	99.0%	68.4%	—	—	87.4%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	87.5%	68.9%	91.0%	—	92.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	76.9%	99.7%	73.3%	2.2%	—	92.9%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	72.0%	98.8%	74.9%	95.5%	76.7%	94.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	99.9%	84.8%	98.4%	—	94.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	80.1%	99.9%	81.8%	95.1%	90.0%	96.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	80.9%	99.8%	84.2%	98.1%	—	97.4%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	99.7%	83.5%	97.2%	88.7%	98.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	99.6%	86.1%	98.7%	—	98.5%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	79.8%	99.5%	89.2%	99.1%	96.3%	99.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	79.8%	100.0%	88.8%	99.2%	—	99.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	100.0%	89.8%	99.1%	96.9%	99.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	83.0%	99.7%	90.1%	99.4%	—	99.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	70.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-09 06:00	0.0021
ICON	55%	63.6°F	9.8°F	2026-10-09 12:00	0.2070
National Blend	53%	63.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-09 06:00	0.2247
IFS Ensemble	38%	60.3°F	7.3°F	2026-10-09 00:00	0.3819
IFS HRES	23%	57.9°F	6.3°F	2026-10-09 12:00	0.5868
AIFS Single	20%	57.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-09 18:00	0.6336

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261016-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 09 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 63°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗