KBOS / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 13:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

60%

47%

47%

38%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 52.9¢Risks 52.90u

ICONNO 47.1¢Risks 47.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +47.10u · ICON −47.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T16:19:49+00:00	53.0%	43.6%	74.3%	44.7%	80.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:18+00:00	53.0%	43.6%	74.3%	44.7%	80.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:31+00:00	53.0%	43.6%	74.3%	44.7%	80.3%
2026-10-15T18:35:50+00:00	53.0%	43.6%	74.3%	44.7%	80.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:04+00:00	53.0%	43.6%	74.3%	44.7%	80.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	49.0%	43.6%	74.3%	46.8%	59.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	49.0%	43.6%	74.3%	46.8%	59.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	49.0%	43.6%	74.3%	46.8%	59.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:46+00:00	49.0%	43.6%	74.3%	46.8%	59.0%
2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:00	49.0%	43.6%	70.9%	46.8%	59.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:11+00:00	49.0%	43.6%	70.9%	46.8%	59.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	49.0%	43.6%	70.9%	46.8%	59.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:39+00:00	47.0%	43.6%	70.9%	46.8%	59.0%
2026-10-16T02:07:55+00:00	47.0%	43.6%	70.9%	46.8%	59.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:23+00:00	47.0%	43.6%	70.9%	46.8%	59.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	47.0%	43.6%	70.9%	46.8%	59.0%
2026-10-16T04:23:46+00:00	47.0%	43.6%	70.9%	46.8%	59.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:21+00:00	47.0%	43.6%	68.5%	46.8%	59.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:36+00:00	47.0%	43.6%	68.5%	46.8%	59.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	47.0%	43.6%	68.5%	46.8%	59.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:10+00:00	47.0%	43.6%	68.5%	46.8%	59.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:20+00:00	47.4%	43.6%	68.5%	46.8%	37.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	47.4%	43.6%	68.5%	46.8%	37.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:39+00:00	47.4%	43.6%	68.5%	46.8%	37.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:45+00:00	47.4%	43.6%	68.5%	46.8%	37.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:01+00:00	47.4%	59.9%	68.2%	46.8%	37.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:34+00:00	47.4%	59.9%	68.2%	46.8%	37.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:44+00:00	47.4%	59.9%	68.2%	46.8%	37.6%
2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00	47.4%	59.9%	68.2%	46.8%	37.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	75%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0635
WeatherNext 2	68%	69.7°F	2.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1011
IFS Ensemble	60%	69.3°F	3.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1608
NWS forecast	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.1681
AIFS Single	47%	68.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.2767
IFS HRES	47%	68.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.2830
ICON	38%	67.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.3894

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261016-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 15 · 16:19 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 69°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗