KBOS / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 13:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

60%

47%

47%

38%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 52.9¢Risks 52.90u

ICONNO 47.1¢Risks 47.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +47.10u · ICON −47.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	22.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	1.4%	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	80.7%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	43.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	78.3%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	0.5%	11.4%	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	5.1%	10.5%	0.7%	—	6.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	2.3%	2.5%	3.8%	—	6.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	34.4%	2.2%	0.2%	—	5.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	0.0%	3.3%	0.2%	—	6.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.0%	21.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	15.2%	18.9%	0.0%	—	19.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.2%	15.1%	36.3%	—	3.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.1%	16.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.0%	20.9%	20.3%	—	7.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	0.2%	13.7%	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	73.7%	21.0%	6.2%	—	10.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	0.7%	21.9%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	87.2%	17.0%	54.1%	—	20.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	77.2%	13.2%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	31.1%	12.5%	38.2%	—	41.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	85.9%	14.1%	0.0%	—	41.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	69.0%	14.0%	47.7%	15.3%	43.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.0%	89.2%	21.6%	63.0%	—	41.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	91.0%	16.6%	41.3%	27.6%	48.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	81.8%	17.4%	55.1%	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	76.0%	14.9%	46.0%	21.0%	58.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	70.0%	15.6%	55.6%	—	52.8%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	65.5%	17.2%	57.2%	34.5%	68.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	88.0%	14.4%	54.5%	—	68.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	82.9%	13.4%	50.0%	30.3%	66.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	61.4%	11.5%	50.0%	—	48.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	75%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0635
WeatherNext 2	68%	69.7°F	2.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1011
IFS Ensemble	60%	69.3°F	3.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1608
NWS forecast	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.1681
AIFS Single	47%	68.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.2767
IFS HRES	47%	68.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.2830
ICON	38%	67.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.3894

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261016-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 15 · 16:19 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 69°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗