KBOS / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 74°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 13:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 6.8¢Risks 1.69u

ICONNO 93.2¢Risks 23.31u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +23.31u · ICON −23.31u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-09T07:50:37+00:00	47.1%	5.5%	23.1%	11.6%	5.3%
2026-10-09T08:37:11+00:00	47.1%	5.5%	23.1%	11.6%	5.3%
2026-10-09T09:22:16+00:00	47.1%	5.5%	23.1%	11.6%	5.3%
2026-10-09T10:07:23+00:00	47.1%	5.5%	23.1%	11.6%	5.3%
2026-10-09T10:52:28+00:00	47.1%	5.5%	23.1%	11.6%	5.3%
2026-10-09T11:37:34+00:00	47.1%	5.5%	23.1%	11.6%	5.3%
2026-10-09T12:23:02+00:00	47.1%	3.3%	23.1%	11.6%	5.3%
2026-10-09T13:08:24+00:00	47.1%	3.3%	23.1%	11.6%	5.3%
2026-10-09T13:53:30+00:00	8.1%	3.3%	23.1%	11.6%	5.3%
2026-10-09T14:42:06+00:00	8.1%	3.3%	23.1%	11.6%	5.4%
2026-10-09T15:27:12+00:00	8.1%	3.5%	23.1%	11.6%	5.4%
2026-10-09T16:13:12+00:00	8.1%	3.5%	23.1%	11.6%	5.4%
2026-10-09T16:58:25+00:00	8.1%	3.5%	23.1%	11.6%	5.4%
2026-10-09T17:43:31+00:00	8.1%	3.5%	29.2%	11.6%	5.4%
2026-10-09T18:28:38+00:00	8.1%	3.5%	29.2%	11.6%	5.4%
2026-10-09T19:13:43+00:00	8.1%	3.5%	29.2%	11.6%	5.4%
2026-10-09T19:58:48+00:00	0.7%	3.5%	29.2%	0.7%	15.7%
2026-10-09T20:44:01+00:00	0.7%	3.5%	29.2%	0.7%	15.7%
2026-10-09T21:29:06+00:00	0.7%	3.5%	29.2%	0.7%	15.7%
2026-10-09T22:14:35+00:00	0.7%	3.5%	29.2%	0.7%	15.7%
2026-10-09T22:59:41+00:00	0.7%	3.5%	29.2%	0.7%	15.7%
2026-10-09T23:44:47+00:00	0.7%	3.5%	29.2%	0.7%	15.7%
2026-10-10T00:29:53+00:00	0.7%	3.5%	29.2%	0.7%	15.7%
2026-10-10T01:15:12+00:00	0.7%	3.5%	29.2%	0.7%	15.7%
2026-10-10T02:00:32+00:00	0.3%	3.5%	29.2%	0.7%	15.7%
2026-10-10T02:45:56+00:00	0.3%	3.5%	29.2%	0.7%	15.7%
2026-10-10T03:31:20+00:00	0.3%	3.5%	29.2%	0.7%	15.7%
2026-10-10T04:16:29+00:00	0.3%	3.5%	29.2%	0.7%	15.7%
2026-10-10T05:03:02+00:00	0.3%	3.5%	29.2%	0.7%	15.7%
2026-10-13T08:02:21+00:00	5.5%	3.1%	3.4%	14.1%	33.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:37+00:00	5.5%	3.1%	3.4%	14.1%	33.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	5.5%	3.1%	3.4%	14.1%	33.4%
2026-10-13T10:19:48+00:00	5.5%	3.1%	3.4%	14.1%	33.4%
2026-10-13T11:05:04+00:00	5.5%	3.1%	3.4%	14.1%	33.4%
2026-10-13T11:50:31+00:00	5.5%	11.5%	7.3%	14.1%	33.4%
2026-10-13T12:35:46+00:00	5.5%	11.5%	7.3%	14.1%	33.4%
2026-10-13T13:20:52+00:00	5.5%	11.5%	7.3%	14.1%	33.4%
2026-10-13T14:05:58+00:00	7.1%	11.5%	7.3%	14.1%	33.4%
2026-10-13T14:56:01+00:00	7.1%	11.5%	7.3%	14.1%	33.4%
2026-10-13T15:41:08+00:00	7.1%	12.0%	7.3%	14.1%	33.4%
2026-10-13T16:27:00+00:00	7.1%	12.0%	7.3%	14.1%	33.4%
2026-10-13T17:12:07+00:00	7.1%	12.0%	7.7%	14.1%	33.4%
2026-10-13T17:57:15+00:00	7.1%	12.0%	7.7%	14.1%	33.4%
2026-10-13T18:42:20+00:00	7.1%	12.0%	7.7%	14.1%	33.4%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	7.1%	12.0%	7.7%	14.1%	33.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:31+00:00	6.2%	12.0%	7.7%	14.1%	51.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:40+00:00	6.2%	12.0%	7.7%	14.1%	51.0%
2026-10-13T21:42:46+00:00	6.2%	12.0%	7.7%	14.1%	51.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:21+00:00	6.2%	12.0%	7.7%	14.1%	51.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	6.2%	12.0%	6.1%	7.6%	51.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:41+00:00	6.2%	12.0%	6.1%	7.6%	51.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:50+00:00	6.2%	12.0%	6.1%	7.6%	51.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:06+00:00	10.9%	12.0%	6.1%	7.6%	51.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:15+00:00	10.9%	12.0%	6.1%	7.6%	51.0%
2026-10-14T02:59:22+00:00	10.9%	12.0%	6.1%	7.6%	51.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:21+00:00	10.9%	12.0%	6.1%	7.6%	51.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:42+00:00	10.9%	12.0%	6.1%	7.6%	51.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:49+00:00	10.9%	12.0%	6.1%	7.6%	51.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:56+00:00	10.9%	12.0%	6.1%	7.6%	51.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:03+00:00	10.9%	12.0%	6.1%	7.6%	51.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:29+00:00	10.2%	8.8%	10.4%	7.2%	2.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:09+00:00	10.2%	8.8%	10.4%	7.2%	2.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:17+00:00	10.2%	8.8%	10.4%	7.2%	2.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:24+00:00	11.5%	8.8%	10.4%	7.2%	2.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	11.5%	9.0%	10.4%	7.2%	2.2%
2026-10-14T15:11:54+00:00	11.5%	8.6%	10.4%	7.2%	2.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	11.5%	8.6%	10.4%	7.2%	2.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:00+00:00	11.5%	8.6%	10.4%	7.2%	2.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:08+00:00	11.5%	8.6%	11.0%	7.2%	2.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	11.5%	8.6%	11.0%	7.2%	2.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00	11.5%	8.6%	11.0%	7.2%	2.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	9.3%	8.6%	11.0%	9.0%	15.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:44+00:00	9.3%	8.6%	11.0%	9.0%	15.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	9.3%	8.6%	11.0%	9.0%	15.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	9.3%	8.6%	11.0%	9.0%	15.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:06+00:00	9.3%	8.6%	11.0%	9.0%	15.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	9.3%	8.6%	10.4%	9.0%	15.5%
2026-10-15T00:14:36+00:00	9.3%	8.6%	10.4%	9.0%	15.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:00	9.3%	8.6%	10.4%	9.0%	15.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:14+00:00	12.0%	8.6%	10.4%	9.0%	15.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:25+00:00	12.0%	8.6%	10.4%	9.0%	15.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00	12.0%	8.6%	10.4%	9.0%	15.5%
2026-10-15T04:01:40+00:00	12.0%	8.6%	10.4%	9.0%	15.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:47+00:00	12.0%	8.6%	10.4%	9.0%	15.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:14+00:00	12.0%	8.6%	13.6%	9.0%	15.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:24+00:00	12.0%	8.6%	13.6%	9.0%	15.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:00	12.0%	8.6%	13.6%	9.0%	15.5%
2026-10-15T07:48:45+00:00	11.3%	8.6%	13.6%	7.0%	29.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	11.3%	8.6%	13.6%	7.0%	29.5%
2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00	11.3%	8.6%	13.6%	7.0%	29.5%
2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00	11.3%	8.6%	13.6%	7.0%	29.5%
2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00	11.3%	8.6%	13.6%	7.0%	29.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:00+00:00	11.3%	8.6%	15.2%	7.0%	29.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00	11.3%	5.5%	15.2%	7.0%	29.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:00+00:00	11.3%	5.5%	15.2%	7.0%	29.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:45+00:00	11.8%	5.5%	15.2%	7.0%	29.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	11.8%	6.0%	14.3%	7.0%	28.5%
2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:00	11.8%	6.6%	14.3%	7.0%	28.5%
2026-10-15T16:19:50+00:00	11.8%	6.6%	14.3%	7.0%	28.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:18+00:00	11.8%	6.6%	14.3%	7.0%	28.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:31+00:00	11.8%	6.6%	14.3%	7.0%	28.5%
2026-10-15T18:35:50+00:00	11.8%	6.6%	14.3%	7.0%	28.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:04+00:00	11.8%	6.6%	14.3%	7.0%	28.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	9.9%	6.6%	14.3%	7.7%	11.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	9.9%	6.6%	14.3%	7.7%	11.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	9.9%	6.6%	14.3%	7.7%	11.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:46+00:00	9.9%	6.6%	14.3%	7.7%	11.6%
2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:00	9.9%	6.6%	12.1%	7.7%	11.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:11+00:00	9.9%	6.6%	12.1%	7.7%	11.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	9.9%	6.6%	12.1%	7.7%	11.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:39+00:00	9.0%	6.6%	12.1%	7.7%	11.6%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	9.0%	6.6%	12.1%	7.7%	11.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:23+00:00	9.0%	6.6%	12.1%	7.7%	11.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	9.0%	6.6%	12.1%	7.7%	11.6%
2026-10-16T04:23:46+00:00	9.0%	6.6%	12.1%	7.7%	11.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:21+00:00	9.0%	6.6%	10.8%	7.7%	11.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:36+00:00	9.0%	6.6%	10.8%	7.7%	11.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	9.0%	6.6%	10.8%	7.7%	11.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	9.0%	6.6%	10.8%	7.7%	11.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:20+00:00	4.5%	6.6%	10.8%	7.7%	4.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	4.5%	6.6%	10.8%	7.7%	4.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:39+00:00	4.5%	6.6%	10.8%	7.7%	4.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:45+00:00	4.5%	6.6%	10.8%	7.7%	4.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:01+00:00	4.5%	9.5%	6.7%	7.7%	4.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:34+00:00	4.5%	9.5%	6.7%	7.7%	4.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:44+00:00	4.5%	9.5%	6.7%	7.7%	4.0%
2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00	4.5%	9.5%	6.7%	7.7%	4.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	10%	69.3°F	3.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0090
IFS HRES	8%	68.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0059
WeatherNext 2	7%	69.7°F	2.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0045
National Blend	6%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0035
AIFS Single	4%	68.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0020
ICON	4%	67.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0016
NWS forecast	2%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.0004

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261016-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 09 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Boston runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗