WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KBOS / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 74°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 13:27 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
10%
HRES
8%
WN2
7%
AIFS
4%
ICON
4%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 6.8¢Risks 1.69u
VS
ICONNO 93.2¢Risks 23.31u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +23.31u · ICON −23.31u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.3% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.6% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.1% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.6% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 57.8% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.8% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.0% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.7% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 27.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 43.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 27.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 36.7% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 16.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 39.3% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 41.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 23.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 16.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 23.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 15.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.9% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 53.1% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.4% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 48.7% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.3% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.6% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.6% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 11.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 11.9% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.7% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 1.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 1.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.3% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.3% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.2% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.5% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.0% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.4% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.3% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0010-01 06:0010-09 00:0010-16 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:000.1%————0.7%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:001.4%—————
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:003.2%————8.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:004.5%—————
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:0019.3%—————
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:0012.8%—7.9%———
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:005.9%————6.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:0051.6%—————
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:0020.8%————7.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:0021.6%—————
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:004.2%————7.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:005.9%—————
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:004.7%————5.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:000.4%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:001.7%————8.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:001.2%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:0016.1%————5.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:008.9%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:001.4%————3.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:001.0%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:001.0%————1.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:000.6%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:002.6%—0.2%——0.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:003.8%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0011.2%————0.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:001.2%—0.2%———
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:004.8%—53.1%——2.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0043.6%—16.4%———
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0057.8%—48.7%——4.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:000.7%—10.3%———
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0022.8%0.0%2.0%——0.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:002.0%—1.8%———
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.6%1.7%0.0%—0.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:000.0%—0.5%———
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:001.3%0.2%0.2%0.4%—0.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:006.0%—0.1%———
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:000.5%8.7%0.1%0.0%—0.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:000.0%—2.6%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:001.6%0.0%0.2%0.0%—0.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%3.6%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:000.0%1.9%2.7%0.0%—2.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%1.7%7.3%—0.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%1.7%——0.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%2.5%2.3%—0.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%1.1%——0.2%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:000.5%27.9%2.1%0.3%—0.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:000.6%0.0%2.1%——4.4%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:000.4%43.9%1.2%11.8%—1.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.9%27.9%0.7%——3.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.9%3.1%0.6%4.7%—5.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:000.9%36.7%0.6%0.0%—5.1%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.4%16.8%0.5%6.5%0.7%5.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.6%39.3%1.1%11.9%—4.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.5%41.3%0.6%3.7%1.6%5.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.4%23.8%0.5%6.8%—5.3%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.2%16.5%0.3%3.7%0.6%7.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.1%11.1%0.3%5.4%—4.7%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.1%7.8%0.3%5.1%1.3%8.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.0%23.6%0.2%3.7%—8.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.1%15.2%0.1%2.4%0.6%6.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.0%3.7%0.1%1.9%—1.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble10%69.3°F3.2°F2026-10-16 00:000.0090
IFS HRES8%68.2°F3.7°F2026-10-15 12:000.0059
WeatherNext 27%69.7°F2.5°F2026-10-16 00:000.0045
National Blend6%70.0°F2.2°F2026-10-16 06:000.0035
AIFS Single4%68.3°F3.1°F2026-10-16 00:000.0020
ICON4%67.4°F3.5°F2026-10-16 00:000.0016
NWS forecast2%69.0°F2.2°F2026-10-16 02:000.0004

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261016-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 09 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Boston runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗