KBOS / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 51°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 13 · 13:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

98%

97%

89%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 94.4¢Risks 47.20u

EPSNO 5.6¢Risks 2.80u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +2.80u · EPS −2.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T13:20:52+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:26:22+00:00	77.4%	85.7%	83.0%	78.2%	85.4%
2026-10-12T16:12:53+00:00	77.4%	84.9%	83.0%	78.2%	85.4%
2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:00	77.4%	84.9%	83.0%	78.2%	85.4%
2026-10-12T17:43:10+00:00	77.4%	84.9%	92.6%	78.2%	85.4%
2026-10-12T18:28:17+00:00	77.4%	84.9%	92.6%	78.2%	85.4%
2026-10-12T19:13:23+00:00	77.4%	84.9%	92.6%	78.2%	85.4%
2026-10-12T19:58:30+00:00	82.0%	84.9%	92.6%	84.3%	81.6%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	82.0%	84.9%	92.6%	84.3%	81.6%
2026-10-12T21:28:47+00:00	82.0%	84.9%	92.6%	84.3%	81.6%
2026-10-12T22:13:54+00:00	82.0%	84.9%	92.6%	84.3%	81.6%
2026-10-12T22:59:02+00:00	82.0%	84.9%	91.1%	84.3%	81.6%
2026-10-12T23:44:15+00:00	82.0%	84.9%	91.1%	84.3%	81.6%
2026-10-13T00:29:21+00:00	82.0%	84.9%	91.1%	84.3%	81.6%
2026-10-13T01:14:37+00:00	82.0%	84.9%	91.1%	84.3%	81.6%
2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00	83.6%	84.9%	91.1%	84.3%	81.6%
2026-10-13T02:44:53+00:00	83.6%	84.9%	91.1%	84.3%	81.6%
2026-10-13T03:29:59+00:00	83.6%	84.9%	91.1%	84.3%	81.6%
2026-10-13T04:15:06+00:00	83.6%	84.9%	91.1%	84.3%	81.6%
2026-10-13T05:01:41+00:00	83.6%	84.9%	91.1%	84.3%	81.6%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	83.6%	84.9%	93.6%	84.3%	81.6%
2026-10-13T06:31:56+00:00	83.6%	84.9%	93.6%	84.3%	81.6%
2026-10-13T07:17:14+00:00	83.6%	84.9%	93.6%	84.3%	81.6%
2026-10-13T08:02:21+00:00	98.0%	84.9%	93.6%	96.7%	100.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:37+00:00	98.0%	84.9%	93.6%	96.7%	100.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	98.0%	84.9%	93.6%	96.7%	100.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:48+00:00	98.0%	84.9%	93.6%	96.7%	100.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:04+00:00	98.0%	84.9%	93.6%	96.7%	100.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:31+00:00	98.0%	88.8%	99.9%	96.7%	100.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:46+00:00	98.0%	88.8%	99.9%	96.7%	100.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:52+00:00	98.0%	88.8%	99.9%	96.7%	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	>99%	68.4°F	4.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000
WeatherNext 2	>99%	62.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000
AIFS Single	98%	60.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0004
IFS HRES	97%	59.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0011
IFS Ensemble	89%	61.9°F	9.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0125
NWS forecast	55%	51.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.2070
National Blend	54%	51.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2079

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 51°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261017-TMAX-GE51
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 51°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗