KBOS / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 51°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 13 · 13:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

98%

97%

89%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 94.4¢Risks 47.20u

EPSNO 5.6¢Risks 2.80u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +2.80u · EPS −2.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	93.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	94.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	—	92.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	96.3%	—	—	—	—	97.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	95.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	95.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	—	—	—	91.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	—	—	—	89.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	94.9%	—	—	—	—	92.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	87.1%	—	99.5%	—	—	95.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	—	98.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	99.7%	—	—	97.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	98.3%	—	—	94.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	99.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	99.4%	—	—	91.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	80.6%	97.3%	99.1%	—	—	88.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	88.7%	—	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	65.7%	99.9%	99.8%	47.9%	—	88.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	99.9%	67.0%	—	89.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	81.1%	89.3%	53.0%	—	89.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	73.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	76.4%	92.8%	99.2%	—	80.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	83.2%	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	55.0%	71.4%	82.2%	83.8%	—	82.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	57.6%	93.0%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	89.9%	100.0%	86.4%	97.7%	—	84.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	96.1%	96.4%	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	91.7%	100.0%	100.0%	99.6%	—	96.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	98.9%	100.0%	99.9%	—	—	99.9%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	98.1%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	99.2%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	99.4%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	99.5%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	99.1%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	96.2%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	97.8%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	99.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	97.7%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	97.4%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	99.5%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	99.9%	91.4%	100.0%	—	99.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	53.2%	73.7%	30.3%	34.6%	42.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	41.8%	69.0%	26.7%	—	35.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	>99%	68.4°F	4.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000
WeatherNext 2	>99%	62.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000
AIFS Single	98%	60.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0004
IFS HRES	97%	59.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0011
IFS Ensemble	89%	61.9°F	9.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0125
NWS forecast	55%	51.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.2070
National Blend	54%	51.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2079

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 51°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261017-TMAX-GE51
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 51°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗