KBOS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 54°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

77%

64%

52%

41%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 67.1¢Risks 67.10u

EPSNO 32.9¢Risks 32.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +32.90u · EPS −32.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T03:15:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T11:19:36+00:00	23.1%	41.8%	55.6%	68.8%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:19+00:00	23.1%	41.8%	55.6%	68.8%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:25+00:00	23.1%	41.8%	55.6%	68.8%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:31+00:00	45.0%	41.8%	55.6%	68.8%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:08+00:00	45.0%	41.8%	55.6%	68.8%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:19+00:00	45.0%	41.1%	55.6%	68.8%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00	45.0%	41.1%	55.6%	68.8%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:23+00:00	45.0%	41.1%	55.6%	68.8%	—
2026-10-11T17:27:30+00:00	45.0%	41.1%	46.0%	68.8%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:05+00:00	45.0%	41.1%	46.0%	68.8%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00	45.0%	41.1%	46.0%	68.8%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:25+00:00	92.4%	41.1%	46.0%	64.2%	52.4%
2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00	92.4%	41.1%	46.0%	64.2%	52.4%
2026-10-11T21:13:45+00:00	92.4%	41.1%	46.0%	64.2%	52.4%
2026-10-11T21:58:56+00:00	92.4%	41.1%	46.0%	64.2%	52.4%
2026-10-11T22:44:06+00:00	92.4%	41.1%	46.0%	64.2%	52.4%
2026-10-11T23:29:20+00:00	92.4%	41.1%	77.3%	64.2%	52.4%
2026-10-12T00:14:41+00:00	92.4%	41.1%	77.3%	64.2%	52.4%
2026-10-12T01:00:06+00:00	92.4%	41.1%	77.3%	64.2%	52.4%
2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00	93.1%	41.1%	77.3%	64.2%	52.4%
2026-10-12T02:30:26+00:00	93.1%	41.1%	77.3%	64.2%	52.4%
2026-10-12T03:15:34+00:00	93.1%	41.1%	77.3%	64.2%	52.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	93%	61.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	77%	57.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	55.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	54.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
ICON	52%	54.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	52.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 54°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261018-TMAX-GE54
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 54°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗