KBOS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 54°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

77%

64%

52%

41%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 67.1¢Risks 67.10u

EPSNO 32.9¢Risks 32.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +32.90u · EPS −32.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	91.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	—	—	—	73.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	78.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	—	—	—	75.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	33.0%	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	90.7%	—	—	57.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	83.2%	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	31.8%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	78.6%	24.6%	15.3%	4.5%	—	40.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	80.1%	—	36.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	26.6%	39.9%	14.0%	—	36.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	53.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	6.3%	38.0%	10.7%	—	25.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	46.0%	69.2%	81.6%	—	32.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	0.3%	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	90.3%	88.8%	70.0%	—	41.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	81.0%	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	73.8%	90.3%	58.7%	—	26.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	57.1%	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	47.2%	90.2%	28.9%	—	26.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	61.2%	61.2%	89.1%	—	—	24.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	46.1%	53.9%	88.9%	33.9%	—	26.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	77.4%	48.0%	90.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	54.1%	75.7%	84.9%	68.8%	—	41.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	47.9%	55.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	70.8%	36.1%	48.9%	—	11.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	55.6%	30.5%	0.2%	—	27.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	71.0%	44.2%	58.1%	—	36.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	57.2%	70.7%	65.3%	61.9%	—	40.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	81.8%	63.4%	52.5%	8.0%	33.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	69.8%	63.9%	39.8%	—	30.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.0%	85.9%	85.9%	44.6%	8.9%	26.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	73.5%	78.9%	51.4%	—	26.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	45.7%	72.0%	91.6%	52.9%	11.5%	26.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	61.9%	88.0%	47.0%	—	17.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	39.1%	89.0%	40.6%	11.7%	21.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	40.2%	83.0%	59.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	93%	61.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	77%	57.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	55.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	54.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
ICON	52%	54.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	52.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 54°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261018-TMAX-GE54
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 54°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗