KBOS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MALow ≤ 32°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 10:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

13%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 18.4¢Risks 18.35u

EPSNO 81.7¢Risks 81.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +81.65u · EPS −81.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T10:26:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:48:45+00:00	9.4%	5.7%	11.1%	11.5%	25.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	9.4%	5.7%	11.1%	11.5%	25.5%
2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00	9.4%	5.7%	11.1%	11.5%	25.5%
2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00	9.4%	5.7%	11.1%	11.5%	25.5%
2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00	9.4%	5.7%	11.1%	11.5%	25.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:00+00:00	9.4%	5.7%	9.4%	11.5%	25.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00	9.4%	1.4%	9.4%	11.5%	25.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:00+00:00	9.4%	1.4%	9.4%	11.5%	25.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:45+00:00	15.9%	1.4%	9.4%	11.5%	25.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	15.9%	1.4%	9.4%	11.5%	25.5%
2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:00	15.9%	1.4%	9.4%	11.5%	25.5%
2026-10-15T16:19:50+00:00	15.9%	1.4%	9.4%	11.5%	25.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:18+00:00	15.9%	1.4%	9.0%	11.5%	25.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:31+00:00	15.9%	1.4%	9.0%	11.5%	25.5%
2026-10-15T18:35:50+00:00	15.9%	1.4%	9.0%	11.5%	25.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:04+00:00	15.9%	1.4%	9.0%	11.5%	25.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	11.1%	1.4%	9.0%	8.1%	24.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	11.1%	1.4%	9.0%	8.1%	24.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	11.1%	1.4%	9.0%	8.1%	24.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	11.1%	1.4%	9.0%	8.1%	24.7%
2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:00	11.1%	1.4%	7.9%	8.1%	24.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:11+00:00	11.1%	1.4%	7.9%	8.1%	24.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	11.1%	1.4%	7.9%	8.1%	24.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:39+00:00	13.6%	1.4%	7.9%	8.1%	24.7%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	13.6%	1.4%	7.9%	8.1%	24.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:23+00:00	13.6%	1.4%	7.9%	8.1%	24.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	13.6%	1.4%	7.9%	8.1%	24.7%
2026-10-16T04:23:46+00:00	13.6%	1.4%	7.9%	8.1%	24.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:21+00:00	13.6%	1.4%	12.6%	8.1%	24.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:36+00:00	13.6%	1.4%	12.6%	8.1%	24.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	13.6%	1.4%	12.6%	8.1%	24.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	13.6%	1.4%	12.6%	8.1%	24.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:20+00:00	11.7%	1.4%	12.6%	8.1%	35.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	11.7%	1.4%	12.6%	8.1%	35.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:39+00:00	11.7%	1.4%	12.6%	8.1%	35.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:45+00:00	11.7%	1.4%	12.6%	8.1%	35.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	35%	33.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	37.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	12%	36.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	39.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	36.9°F	2.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	37.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	44.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261018-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Boston freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗