KBOS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MALow ≤ 32°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 10:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

13%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 18.4¢Risks 18.35u

EPSNO 81.7¢Risks 81.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +81.65u · EPS −81.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	4.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	9.3%	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	10.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	0.3%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	20.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	18.9%	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	69.5%	45.1%	13.0%	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	31.7%	70.9%	59.4%	17.9%	—	22.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	53.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	65.6%	49.2%	2.8%	—	25.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	70.5%	61.8%	3.8%	—	28.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	30.4%	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	35.3%	40.1%	21.9%	3.4%	—	28.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	39.0%	19.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	32.2%	50.9%	15.6%	12.2%	—	20.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	22.2%	59.8%	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	32.2%	16.0%	10.6%	—	8.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	34.3%	21.0%	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	25.5%	24.7%	6.5%	—	14.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	29.1%	23.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	23.5%	19.0%	5.2%	—	13.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	22.0%	15.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	35.1%	35.1%	5.6%	—	9.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	32.6%	32.6%	4.2%	—	9.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	21.5%	18.3%	6.5%	—	9.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	18.3%	21.6%	5.8%	—	9.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	15.9%	19.1%	5.2%	2.6%	6.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	10.3%	15.0%	4.9%	—	6.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	17.3%	7.9%	3.2%	3.2%	6.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	18.2%	9.2%	3.7%	—	5.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	16.3%	4.0%	3.7%	2.7%	5.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	41.0%	2.2%	16.2%	—	13.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	26.3%	0.1%	8.9%	2.9%	2.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	35%	33.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1246
WeatherNext 2	13%	37.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 18:00	0.0159
AIFS Single	12%	36.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0137
IFS HRES	8%	39.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0066
IFS Ensemble	1%	36.9°F	2.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0002
National Blend	1%	37.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0001
NWS forecast	<1%	44.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261018-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Boston freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗