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KBOS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
>99%
AIFS
95%
ICON
84%
HRES
58%
EPS
57%
Consensus
89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 78.4¢Risks 78.40u
VS
EPSNO 21.6¢Risks 21.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.60u · EPS −21.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 92.9% · 2026-10-17T04:40:44+00:00AIFS Single: 92.9% · 2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00AIFS Single: 92.9% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00AIFS Single: 92.9% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-17T07:43:51+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:17+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00AIFS Single: 94.8% · 2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:00AIFS Single: 94.8% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.7% · 2026-10-17T04:40:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.7% · 2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.7% · 2026-10-17T07:43:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.2% · 2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.2% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.2% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.2% · 2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.1% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T04:40:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-17T07:43:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00IFS HRES: 50.9% · 2026-10-17T04:40:44+00:00IFS HRES: 50.9% · 2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00IFS HRES: 50.9% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00IFS HRES: 50.9% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00IFS HRES: 57.7% · 2026-10-17T07:43:51+00:00IFS HRES: 57.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00IFS HRES: 57.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:17+00:00IFS HRES: 57.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00IFS HRES: 57.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00IFS HRES: 57.7% · 2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00IFS HRES: 57.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00IFS HRES: 57.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00IFS HRES: 57.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:00IFS HRES: 57.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00ICON: 86.6% · 2026-10-17T04:40:44+00:00ICON: 86.6% · 2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00ICON: 86.6% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00ICON: 86.6% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00ICON: 84.5% · 2026-10-17T07:43:51+00:00ICON: 84.5% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00ICON: 84.5% · 2026-10-17T09:16:17+00:00ICON: 84.5% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00ICON: 84.5% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00ICON: 84.5% · 2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00ICON: 84.5% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00ICON: 84.5% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00ICON: 84.5% · 2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:00ICON: 84.5% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:0010-17 04:4010-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:40:44+00:0092.9%47.7%100.0%50.9%86.6%
2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:0092.9%47.7%99.9%50.9%86.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:0092.9%47.7%99.9%50.9%86.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:0092.9%47.7%99.9%50.9%86.6%
2026-10-17T07:43:51+00:0093.9%47.7%99.9%57.7%84.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:0093.9%47.7%99.9%57.7%84.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:17+00:0093.9%47.7%99.9%57.7%84.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:0093.9%47.7%99.9%57.7%84.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:0093.9%47.7%99.9%57.7%84.5%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:0093.9%57.2%99.7%57.7%84.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:0093.9%57.2%99.7%57.7%84.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:0093.9%57.2%99.7%57.7%84.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:0094.8%57.2%99.7%57.7%84.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:0094.8%57.1%99.7%57.7%84.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2>99%63.0°F3.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single95%61.1°F4.1°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
ICON84%58.1°F3.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend78%57.0°F3.2°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
IFS HRES58%55.3°F4.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble57%55.3°F4.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
NWS forecast56%55.0°F3.4°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261019-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 55°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗