KBOS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

95%

84%

58%

57%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 78.4¢Risks 78.40u

EPSNO 21.6¢Risks 21.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.60u · EPS −21.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	92.8%	—	—	—	—	74.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	70.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	42.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	81.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	21.9%	—	—	82.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	30.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	94.9%	—	42.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	95.4%	—	87.0%	—	—	87.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	93.3%	—	94.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	22.3%	95.5%	—	—	83.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	94.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	14.9%	88.1%	6.7%	—	78.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	93.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	89.0%	98.8%	69.6%	96.8%	—	81.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	98.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	93.0%	99.4%	97.8%	98.8%	—	87.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	98.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	95.9%	99.7%	99.0%	78.2%	—	86.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	11.4%	99.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	67.8%	99.2%	51.7%	—	70.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	95.5%	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	70.1%	99.3%	44.8%	—	81.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	95.2%	97.4%	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	79.1%	96.1%	96.1%	—	82.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	65.7%	84.1%	59.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	65.2%	96.5%	70.4%	98.4%	—	49.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	70.1%	82.3%	68.3%	—	—	52.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	70.6%	83.0%	63.1%	97.4%	—	75.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	75.5%	83.7%	69.3%	—	—	70.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	77.0%	85.7%	65.9%	85.1%	0.7%	58.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	83.9%	78.6%	4.2%	—	53.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	76.7%	84.0%	69.0%	66.9%	54.6%	46.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	77.5%	81.7%	78.4%	56.0%	—	44.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	77.3%	77.3%	72.4%	64.6%	0.6%	45.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	74.1%	77.2%	75.2%	72.0%	—	43.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	73.9%	82.7%	74.9%	55.4%	47.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	76.8%	86.1%	76.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	83.7%	77.8%	79.8%	74.4%	54.3%	51.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	68.9%	81.9%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	63.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	61.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	84%	58.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	78%	57.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	55.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	55.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	55.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261019-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 55°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗