KBOS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

87%

35%

30%

27%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 61.1¢Risks 61.15u

EPSNO 38.9¢Risks 38.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.85u · EPS −38.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:24:21+00:00	87.1%	41.9%	98.2%	38.5%	67.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:28+00:00	87.1%	41.9%	98.2%	38.5%	67.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:36+00:00	87.1%	41.9%	96.9%	38.5%	67.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	87.1%	41.9%	96.9%	38.5%	67.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:53+00:00	87.1%	41.9%	96.9%	38.5%	67.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	87.1%	41.9%	96.9%	38.5%	67.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:07+00:00	83.8%	41.9%	96.9%	35.7%	62.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:24+00:00	83.8%	41.9%	96.9%	35.7%	62.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:34+00:00	83.8%	41.9%	96.9%	35.7%	62.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:41+00:00	83.8%	41.9%	96.9%	35.7%	62.2%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	83.8%	41.9%	96.9%	35.7%	62.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:08+00:00	83.8%	41.9%	92.2%	35.7%	62.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:20+00:00	83.8%	41.9%	92.2%	35.7%	62.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:36+00:00	83.8%	41.9%	92.2%	35.7%	62.2%
2026-10-18T01:57:59+00:00	83.8%	41.9%	92.2%	35.7%	62.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:17+00:00	83.8%	41.9%	92.2%	35.7%	62.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	83.8%	41.9%	92.2%	35.7%	62.2%
2026-10-18T04:13:33+00:00	83.8%	41.9%	92.2%	35.7%	62.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	83.8%	41.9%	91.2%	35.7%	62.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	83.8%	41.9%	91.2%	35.7%	62.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	83.8%	41.9%	91.2%	35.7%	62.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00	83.8%	41.9%	91.2%	35.7%	62.2%
2026-10-18T08:00:42+00:00	83.9%	41.9%	91.2%	34.3%	39.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	83.9%	41.9%	91.2%	34.3%	39.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:14+00:00	83.9%	41.9%	91.2%	34.3%	39.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00	83.9%	41.9%	91.2%	34.3%	39.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00	83.9%	41.9%	91.2%	34.3%	39.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:07+00:00	83.9%	27.7%	91.5%	34.3%	39.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	83.9%	27.7%	91.5%	34.3%	39.9%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00	83.9%	27.7%	91.5%	34.3%	39.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00	81.3%	28.0%	91.5%	34.3%	40.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:00	81.3%	28.0%	91.5%	34.3%	40.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:22+00:00	81.3%	27.3%	91.5%	34.3%	40.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:42+00:00	81.3%	27.3%	91.5%	34.3%	40.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	81.3%	27.3%	92.6%	34.3%	40.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:12+00:00	81.3%	27.3%	92.6%	34.3%	40.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:43+00:00	81.3%	27.3%	92.6%	34.3%	40.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00	81.3%	27.3%	92.6%	34.3%	40.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00	84.5%	27.3%	92.6%	30.4%	34.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:12+00:00	84.5%	27.3%	92.6%	30.4%	34.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:21+00:00	84.5%	27.3%	92.6%	30.4%	34.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:29+00:00	84.5%	27.3%	92.6%	30.4%	34.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	84.5%	27.3%	92.6%	30.4%	34.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:47+00:00	84.5%	27.3%	92.6%	30.4%	34.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:02+00:00	84.5%	27.3%	92.6%	30.4%	34.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:26+00:00	86.8%	27.3%	92.6%	30.4%	34.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	86.8%	27.3%	92.6%	30.4%	34.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:50+00:00	86.8%	27.3%	92.6%	30.4%	34.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	86.8%	27.3%	92.6%	30.4%	34.7%
2026-10-19T04:30:08+00:00	86.8%	27.3%	92.6%	30.4%	34.7%
2026-10-19T05:16:49+00:00	86.8%	27.3%	95.0%	30.4%	34.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	86.8%	27.3%	95.0%	30.4%	34.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	86.8%	27.3%	95.0%	30.4%	34.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	61.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	60.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	57.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	57.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	35%	55.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	54.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	54.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261019-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 57°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗