KBOS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

87%

35%

30%

27%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 61.1¢Risks 61.15u

EPSNO 38.9¢Risks 38.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.85u · EPS −38.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	—	—	—	65.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	—	—	—	59.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	—	—	—	72.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	14.0%	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	20.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	30.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	91.2%	—	78.8%	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	87.8%	—	90.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	13.5%	91.2%	—	—	74.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	8.2%	79.6%	3.2%	—	67.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	86.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	80.6%	97.1%	55.8%	93.1%	—	70.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	97.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	86.2%	98.2%	94.8%	97.0%	—	77.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	91.0%	98.9%	97.3%	64.8%	—	76.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	5.3%	98.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	51.7%	97.8%	35.3%	—	54.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	89.7%	98.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	47.4%	53.5%	97.7%	28.4%	—	67.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	93.2%	98.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	63.6%	90.2%	90.2%	—	68.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	69.9%	40.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	46.1%	90.6%	51.9%	95.1%	—	30.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.0%	66.5%	49.0%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	51.0%	67.0%	42.8%	92.2%	—	57.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	67.4%	48.9%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.6%	69.9%	44.5%	68.9%	0.1%	37.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	62.2%	66.4%	59.0%	1.1%	—	31.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	65.9%	46.5%	44.2%	32.0%	25.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	61.9%	57.2%	32.5%	—	22.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	55.0%	55.0%	48.8%	40.1%	0.1%	22.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	53.9%	51.3%	47.4%	—	20.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	56.7%	48.7%	60.6%	50.0%	29.5%	23.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	51.4%	65.0%	51.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	51.4%	54.3%	47.1%	26.8%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	61.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	60.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	57.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	57.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	35%	55.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	54.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	54.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261019-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 57°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗