KBOS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 13 · 03:29 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

68%

58%

44%

23%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 52.5¢Risks 52.55u

ICONNO 47.5¢Risks 47.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +47.45u · ICON −47.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T03:29:59+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T11:35:15+00:00	21.0%	37.9%	29.3%	46.2%	27.1%
2026-10-12T12:20:45+00:00	21.0%	45.2%	29.3%	46.2%	27.1%
2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00	21.0%	45.2%	29.3%	46.2%	27.1%
2026-10-12T13:51:00+00:00	77.4%	45.2%	29.3%	46.2%	27.1%
2026-10-12T14:41:14+00:00	77.3%	45.2%	29.3%	46.2%	27.2%
2026-10-12T15:26:24+00:00	77.3%	45.2%	29.3%	46.2%	27.2%
2026-10-12T16:12:53+00:00	77.3%	44.1%	29.3%	46.2%	27.2%
2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:00	77.3%	44.1%	29.3%	46.2%	27.2%
2026-10-12T17:43:10+00:00	77.3%	44.1%	65.6%	46.2%	27.2%
2026-10-12T18:28:17+00:00	77.3%	44.1%	65.6%	46.2%	27.2%
2026-10-12T19:13:23+00:00	77.3%	44.1%	65.6%	46.2%	27.2%
2026-10-12T19:58:30+00:00	23.3%	44.1%	65.6%	67.6%	22.7%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	23.3%	44.1%	65.6%	67.6%	22.7%
2026-10-12T21:28:47+00:00	23.3%	44.1%	65.6%	67.6%	22.7%
2026-10-12T22:13:54+00:00	23.3%	44.1%	65.6%	67.6%	22.7%
2026-10-12T22:59:02+00:00	23.3%	44.1%	82.3%	67.6%	22.7%
2026-10-12T23:44:15+00:00	23.3%	44.1%	82.3%	67.6%	22.7%
2026-10-13T00:29:21+00:00	23.3%	44.1%	82.3%	67.6%	22.7%
2026-10-13T01:14:37+00:00	23.3%	44.1%	82.3%	67.6%	22.7%
2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00	58.5%	44.1%	82.3%	67.6%	22.8%
2026-10-13T02:44:53+00:00	58.5%	44.1%	82.3%	67.6%	22.8%
2026-10-13T03:29:59+00:00	58.5%	44.1%	82.3%	67.6%	22.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	65.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	63.4°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	61.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	61.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	59.4°F	7.4°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	23%	53.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261019-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 61°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗