KBOS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 13 · 03:29 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

68%

58%

44%

23%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 52.5¢Risks 52.55u

ICONNO 47.5¢Risks 47.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +47.45u · ICON −47.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	38.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	4.6%	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	55.8%	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	69.1%	—	73.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	3.8%	75.1%	—	—	48.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	72.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	1.8%	54.9%	0.5%	—	39.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	65.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	55.1%	87.6%	27.9%	77.4%	—	42.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	87.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	91.0%	80.5%	86.7%	—	49.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	84.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	93.3%	86.9%	33.7%	—	46.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	0.8%	89.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	21.3%	88.0%	11.2%	—	23.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	42.4%	65.8%	88.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	21.4%	86.9%	7.3%	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	62.4%	72.1%	91.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	28.2%	64.4%	64.4%	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	33.5%	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	63.4%	17.7%	75.3%	—	6.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	28.2%	15.2%	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	27.6%	11.3%	65.1%	—	19.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.3%	27.1%	13.8%	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.3%	28.2%	10.9%	27.3%	0.0%	7.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.6%	24.0%	18.3%	0.0%	—	5.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	22.4%	10.5%	9.4%	5.1%	3.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	18.3%	15.2%	4.8%	—	2.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	13.0%	10.0%	6.7%	0.0%	2.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	11.5%	10.3%	8.7%	—	1.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	8.4%	14.1%	8.9%	3.0%	1.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	8.6%	15.6%	8.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	7.8%	8.9%	6.3%	1.9%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	65.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	63.4°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	61.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	61.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	59.4°F	7.4°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	23%	53.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261019-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 61°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗