KBOS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

63%

39%

36%

12%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.4¢Risks 42.35u

HRESNO 57.6¢Risks 57.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.65u · HRES −57.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T04:01:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:11:55+00:00	72.7%	38.9%	94.0%	58.9%	93.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	72.7%	38.9%	94.0%	58.9%	93.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:00+00:00	72.7%	38.9%	94.0%	58.9%	93.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:08+00:00	72.7%	38.9%	79.6%	58.9%	93.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	72.7%	38.9%	79.6%	58.9%	93.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00	72.7%	38.9%	79.6%	58.9%	93.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	50.0%	38.9%	79.6%	11.9%	35.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:44+00:00	50.0%	38.9%	79.6%	11.9%	35.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	50.0%	38.9%	79.6%	11.9%	35.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	50.0%	38.9%	79.6%	11.9%	35.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:06+00:00	50.0%	38.9%	79.6%	11.9%	35.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	50.0%	38.9%	72.8%	11.9%	35.6%
2026-10-15T00:14:36+00:00	50.0%	38.9%	72.8%	11.9%	35.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:00	50.0%	38.9%	72.8%	11.9%	35.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:14+00:00	62.6%	38.9%	72.8%	11.9%	35.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:25+00:00	62.6%	38.9%	72.8%	11.9%	35.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00	62.6%	38.9%	72.8%	11.9%	35.6%
2026-10-15T04:01:40+00:00	62.6%	38.9%	72.8%	11.9%	35.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	73%	64.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	63.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	62.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	59.5°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	36%	59.3°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	54.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261019-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 14 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗