KBOS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

63%

39%

36%

12%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.4¢Risks 42.35u

HRESNO 57.6¢Risks 57.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.65u · HRES −57.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	—	—	—	38.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	72.9%	—	3.3%	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	76.2%	—	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	58.1%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	69.6%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	49.4%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	2.6%	69.4%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	66.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	1.1%	47.9%	0.3%	—	33.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	83.5%	22.1%	71.5%	—	35.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	83.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	87.5%	74.9%	82.1%	—	41.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	78.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	90.3%	82.1%	26.8%	—	39.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	0.4%	84.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	15.7%	83.2%	7.7%	—	17.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	57.6%	83.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	15.6%	81.6%	4.7%	—	25.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	64.1%	87.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	20.9%	55.5%	55.5%	—	25.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	25.3%	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	53.9%	12.1%	67.0%	—	4.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	20.4%	10.0%	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	19.7%	7.1%	55.1%	—	13.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	19.0%	8.8%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	19.8%	6.6%	19.0%	0.0%	4.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	16.1%	11.8%	0.0%	—	2.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	14.7%	6.1%	5.4%	2.7%	1.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	11.4%	9.2%	2.5%	—	1.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	7.5%	5.5%	3.5%	0.0%	1.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	6.4%	5.6%	4.6%	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	4.3%	7.9%	4.6%	1.3%	0.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	4.3%	8.6%	4.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	3.7%	4.4%	2.9%	0.7%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	73%	64.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	63.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	62.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	59.5°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	36%	59.3°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	54.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261019-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 14 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗