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KBOS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≤ 51°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
21%
HRES
18%
ICON
3%
AIFS
1%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 10.5¢Risks 10.55u
VS
WN2NO 89.5¢Risks 89.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +89.45u · WN2 −89.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T04:40:46+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-17T07:43:51+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-17T09:16:17+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.1% · 2026-10-17T04:40:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.1% · 2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.1% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.1% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.1% · 2026-10-17T07:43:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.1% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.1% · 2026-10-17T09:16:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.1% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.1% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T04:40:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T07:43:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00IFS HRES: 24.4% · 2026-10-17T04:40:46+00:00IFS HRES: 24.4% · 2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00IFS HRES: 24.4% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00IFS HRES: 24.4% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00IFS HRES: 17.7% · 2026-10-17T07:43:51+00:00IFS HRES: 17.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00IFS HRES: 17.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:17+00:00IFS HRES: 17.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00IFS HRES: 17.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-10-17T04:40:46+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-10-17T07:43:51+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-10-17T09:16:17+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:0010-17 04:4010-17 07:4310-17 10:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:40:46+00:001.5%21.1%0.0%24.4%3.1%
2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:001.5%21.1%0.0%24.4%3.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:001.5%21.1%0.0%24.4%3.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:001.5%21.1%0.0%24.4%3.1%
2026-10-17T07:43:51+00:001.1%21.1%0.0%17.7%3.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:001.1%21.1%0.0%17.7%3.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:17+00:001.1%21.1%0.0%17.7%3.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:001.1%21.1%0.0%17.7%3.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:001.1%21.1%0.0%17.7%3.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble21%54.3°F3.5°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
IFS HRES18%55.3°F4.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
NWS forecast15%55.0°F3.4°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending
National Blend5%55.0°F2.2°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
ICON3%58.1°F3.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single1%60.8°F4.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 2<1%64.8°F3.4°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 51°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261019-TMAX-LE51
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: Boston stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 51°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗