KBOS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≤ 51°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

18%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 10.5¢Risks 10.55u

WN2NO 89.5¢Risks 89.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +89.45u · WN2 −89.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	14.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	62.5%	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	51.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	10.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	38.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	5.3%	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	44.6%	60.0%	1.4%	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	42.3%	69.5%	4.4%	83.4%	—	9.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	0.2%	14.4%	0.8%	—	7.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.1%	0.5%	0.2%	—	4.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.1%	0.2%	8.4%	—	4.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	72.4%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	13.8%	0.1%	25.1%	—	12.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	1.0%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	11.8%	0.1%	29.9%	—	6.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.4%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	6.6%	0.7%	0.7%	—	5.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	4.4%	17.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	0.6%	10.2%	0.2%	—	24.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	4.7%	11.0%	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	4.2%	13.4%	0.3%	—	7.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	3.8%	9.6%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	2.9%	10.9%	3.1%	95.0%	14.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	3.3%	5.1%	81.0%	—	17.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	3.1%	8.5%	9.4%	16.0%	21.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	3.5%	4.5%	14.5%	—	22.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	4.6%	6.3%	9.5%	94.1%	20.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	4.3%	4.9%	6.0%	—	20.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	5.0%	2.6%	4.6%	12.7%	17.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	3.7%	1.7%	3.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	3.2%	2.7%	4.0%	11.5%	13.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	5.1%	2.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	21%	54.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	55.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	15%	55.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	55.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	3%	58.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	1%	60.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	64.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 51°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261019-TMAX-LE51
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: Boston stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 51°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗