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KBOS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
99%
AIFS
95%
ICON
82%
HRES
72%
EPS
54%
Consensus
86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 76.6¢Risks 76.55u
VS
EPSNO 23.4¢Risks 23.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.45u · EPS −23.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-17T04:40:47+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00AIFS Single: 94.1% · 2026-10-17T07:43:51+00:00AIFS Single: 94.1% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00AIFS Single: 94.1% · 2026-10-17T09:16:17+00:00AIFS Single: 94.1% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00AIFS Single: 94.1% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00AIFS Single: 94.1% · 2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00AIFS Single: 94.1% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00AIFS Single: 94.1% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00AIFS Single: 95.4% · 2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:00AIFS Single: 95.4% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.0% · 2026-10-17T04:40:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.0% · 2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.0% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.0% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.0% · 2026-10-17T07:43:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.4% · 2026-10-17T04:40:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-17T07:43:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-17T09:16:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.7% · 2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00IFS HRES: 68.4% · 2026-10-17T04:40:47+00:00IFS HRES: 68.4% · 2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00IFS HRES: 68.4% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00IFS HRES: 68.4% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-17T07:43:51+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:17+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00ICON: 76.4% · 2026-10-17T04:40:47+00:00ICON: 76.4% · 2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00ICON: 76.4% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00ICON: 76.4% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00ICON: 81.8% · 2026-10-17T07:43:51+00:00ICON: 81.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00ICON: 81.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:17+00:00ICON: 81.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00ICON: 81.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00ICON: 81.8% · 2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00ICON: 81.8% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00ICON: 81.8% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00ICON: 81.8% · 2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:00ICON: 81.8% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:0010-17 04:4010-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:40:47+00:0093.9%41.0%99.4%68.4%76.4%
2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:0093.9%41.0%98.6%68.4%76.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:0093.9%41.0%98.6%68.4%76.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:0093.9%41.0%98.6%68.4%76.4%
2026-10-17T07:43:51+00:0094.1%41.0%98.6%72.0%81.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:0094.1%41.0%98.6%72.0%81.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:17+00:0094.1%41.0%98.6%72.0%81.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:0094.1%41.0%98.6%72.0%81.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:0094.1%41.0%98.6%72.0%81.8%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:0094.1%54.4%98.7%72.0%81.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:0094.1%54.4%98.7%72.0%81.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:0094.1%54.4%98.7%72.0%81.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:0095.4%54.4%98.7%72.0%81.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:0095.4%54.4%98.7%72.0%81.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 299%64.0°F3.4°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single95%63.7°F4.3°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
ICON82%60.1°F4.0°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend75%58.0°F2.2°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
IFS HRES72%59.1°F4.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
NWS forecast55%57.0°F3.9°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble54%56.9°F3.6°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261020-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 57°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗