KBOS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

95%

82%

72%

54%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 76.6¢Risks 76.55u

EPSNO 23.4¢Risks 23.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.45u · EPS −23.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	91.4%	—	—	—	—	84.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	90.1%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	84.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	97.4%	—	—	78.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	93.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	95.7%	—	—	82.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	93.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	94.4%	58.1%	98.0%	—	—	88.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	97.3%	97.3%	98.4%	68.3%	—	92.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	96.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	97.1%	99.1%	97.7%	70.9%	—	80.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	91.4%	—	98.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	73.6%	64.2%	96.7%	61.3%	—	65.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	98.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	81.1%	98.0%	75.2%	—	68.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	92.1%	28.3%	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	64.7%	70.7%	72.1%	82.7%	—	69.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	71.9%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	65.4%	52.6%	68.6%	91.7%	—	45.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	73.6%	70.6%	72.1%	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	77.7%	66.1%	72.6%	89.8%	—	56.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	78.3%	73.2%	86.8%	—	—	50.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	76.0%	76.0%	82.9%	—	52.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	61.8%	78.1%	—	—	51.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	74.1%	67.0%	77.3%	81.0%	9.0%	52.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	83.7%	79.5%	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	74.5%	84.5%	78.7%	85.7%	—	56.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	71.4%	91.7%	81.0%	6.0%	—	52.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	76.7%	90.0%	86.6%	84.0%	3.5%	50.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	76.6%	95.7%	75.6%	88.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	95.7%	80.9%	91.5%	77.3%	58.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	95.4%	91.3%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	63.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	82%	60.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	58.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	59.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	57.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	56.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261020-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 57°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗