KBOS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

89%

73%

62%

37%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 67.3¢Risks 67.30u

EPSNO 32.7¢Risks 32.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.70u · EPS −32.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:20:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:03+00:00	84.8%	21.2%	91.5%	52.4%	50.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:52+00:00	84.8%	21.2%	91.5%	52.4%	50.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:01+00:00	84.8%	21.2%	91.5%	52.4%	50.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	84.8%	21.2%	97.5%	52.4%	50.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:34+00:00	84.8%	21.2%	97.5%	52.4%	50.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:40+00:00	84.8%	21.2%	97.5%	52.4%	50.0%
2026-10-16T19:36:47+00:00	86.7%	21.2%	97.5%	52.4%	62.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:20+00:00	86.7%	21.2%	97.5%	52.4%	62.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:43+00:00	86.7%	21.2%	97.5%	52.4%	62.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	86.7%	21.2%	97.5%	52.4%	62.1%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00	86.7%	21.2%	97.5%	53.2%	62.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:13+00:00	86.7%	21.2%	97.5%	53.2%	62.1%
2026-10-17T00:08:44+00:00	86.7%	21.2%	97.5%	53.2%	62.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	86.7%	21.2%	97.5%	53.2%	62.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:02+00:00	86.7%	21.2%	97.5%	53.2%	62.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:16+00:00	86.7%	21.2%	97.5%	53.2%	62.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:25+00:00	86.7%	21.2%	97.5%	53.2%	62.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:34+00:00	86.7%	21.2%	97.5%	53.2%	62.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:23+00:00	88.8%	35.8%	94.9%	55.3%	65.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:28+00:00	88.8%	35.8%	94.9%	55.3%	65.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:36+00:00	88.8%	35.8%	95.7%	55.3%	65.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	88.8%	35.8%	95.7%	55.3%	65.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:53+00:00	88.8%	35.8%	95.7%	55.3%	65.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	88.8%	35.8%	95.7%	55.3%	65.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:07+00:00	84.2%	35.8%	95.7%	55.3%	54.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:24+00:00	84.2%	35.8%	95.7%	55.3%	54.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:34+00:00	84.2%	35.8%	95.7%	55.3%	54.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:41+00:00	84.2%	35.8%	95.7%	55.3%	54.0%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	84.2%	35.8%	95.7%	55.3%	54.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:08+00:00	84.2%	35.8%	90.9%	55.3%	54.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:20+00:00	84.2%	35.8%	90.9%	55.3%	54.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:36+00:00	84.2%	35.8%	90.9%	55.3%	54.0%
2026-10-18T01:57:59+00:00	85.9%	35.8%	90.9%	55.3%	54.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:17+00:00	85.9%	35.8%	90.9%	55.3%	54.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	85.9%	35.8%	90.9%	55.3%	54.0%
2026-10-18T04:13:33+00:00	85.9%	35.8%	90.9%	55.3%	54.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	85.9%	35.8%	91.8%	55.3%	54.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	85.9%	35.8%	91.8%	55.3%	54.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	85.9%	35.8%	91.8%	55.3%	54.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00	85.9%	35.8%	91.8%	55.3%	54.0%
2026-10-18T08:00:42+00:00	84.4%	35.8%	91.8%	61.5%	65.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	84.4%	35.8%	91.8%	61.5%	65.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:14+00:00	84.4%	35.8%	91.8%	61.5%	65.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00	84.4%	35.8%	91.8%	61.5%	65.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00	84.4%	35.8%	91.8%	61.5%	65.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:07+00:00	84.4%	35.6%	91.7%	61.5%	65.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	84.4%	35.6%	91.7%	61.5%	65.4%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00	84.4%	35.6%	91.7%	61.5%	65.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00	81.9%	36.1%	91.7%	61.5%	65.3%
2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:00	81.9%	36.1%	91.7%	61.5%	65.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:22+00:00	81.9%	35.0%	91.7%	61.5%	65.3%
2026-10-18T16:26:42+00:00	81.9%	35.0%	91.7%	61.5%	65.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	81.9%	35.0%	92.2%	61.5%	65.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:12+00:00	81.9%	35.0%	92.2%	61.5%	65.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:43+00:00	81.9%	35.0%	92.2%	61.5%	65.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00	81.9%	35.0%	92.2%	61.5%	65.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00	85.0%	35.0%	92.2%	57.7%	72.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:12+00:00	85.0%	35.0%	92.2%	57.7%	72.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:21+00:00	85.0%	35.0%	92.2%	57.7%	72.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:29+00:00	85.0%	35.0%	92.2%	57.7%	72.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	85.0%	35.0%	93.5%	57.7%	72.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	85.0%	35.0%	93.5%	57.7%	72.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:02+00:00	85.0%	35.0%	93.5%	57.7%	72.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:26+00:00	83.8%	35.0%	93.5%	57.7%	72.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	83.8%	35.0%	93.5%	57.7%	72.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:50+00:00	83.8%	35.0%	93.5%	57.7%	72.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	83.8%	35.0%	93.5%	57.7%	72.2%
2026-10-19T04:30:08+00:00	83.8%	35.0%	93.5%	57.7%	72.2%
2026-10-19T05:16:49+00:00	83.8%	35.0%	94.3%	57.7%	72.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	83.8%	35.0%	94.3%	57.7%	72.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	83.8%	35.0%	94.3%	57.7%	72.2%
2026-10-19T07:32:25+00:00	89.3%	35.0%	94.3%	61.7%	73.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00	89.3%	35.0%	94.3%	61.7%	73.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00	89.3%	35.0%	94.3%	61.7%	73.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	89.3%	35.0%	94.3%	61.7%	73.2%
2026-10-19T10:34:45+00:00	89.3%	35.0%	94.3%	61.7%	73.2%
2026-10-19T11:20:31+00:00	89.3%	37.1%	97.5%	61.7%	73.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	64.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	63.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	73%	60.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	59.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	59.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	59.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	57.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261020-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 59°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗