KBOS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

89%

73%

62%

37%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 67.3¢Risks 67.30u

EPSNO 32.7¢Risks 32.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.70u · EPS −32.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	66.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	85.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	86.2%	—	—	—	—	76.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	78.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	83.4%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	75.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	71.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	94.8%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	86.2%	—	88.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	91.7%	—	—	72.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	91.4%	—	87.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	89.5%	44.6%	95.7%	—	—	80.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	96.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	94.2%	94.2%	96.2%	54.9%	—	86.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	92.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	93.6%	97.7%	94.9%	57.3%	—	69.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	84.0%	—	97.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.8%	49.2%	92.7%	46.2%	—	50.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	96.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	52.4%	68.4%	95.2%	61.0%	—	53.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	16.3%	98.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	55.0%	56.6%	70.0%	—	53.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	44.9%	56.0%	68.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	35.4%	51.7%	82.8%	—	29.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	53.6%	55.4%	—	—	36.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	48.2%	55.5%	79.1%	—	38.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	55.7%	73.9%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	58.7%	58.7%	67.8%	—	33.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	64.7%	42.0%	60.9%	—	—	31.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	46.9%	59.2%	64.1%	3.2%	32.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	67.4%	61.5%	—	—	36.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	67.9%	59.7%	69.9%	—	35.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	79.4%	62.2%	1.7%	—	30.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	75.8%	70.0%	65.9%	0.8%	28.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	86.8%	53.6%	71.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	86.3%	59.9%	77.3%	55.0%	34.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	85.0%	76.2%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	64.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	63.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	73%	60.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	59.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	59.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	59.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	57.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261020-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 59°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗